Gale Warning 760, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 242306
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW 240 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 120 NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR AT 992 MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW FORMS 60 NM
NORTH OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND TONIGHT THEN MOVES TO 190 NM NORTH OF
SAINT PAUL AT 980 MB THURSDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ150-251400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-251400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-251400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-251400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-251400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 35 KT NORTHWEST OF NUNIVAK 
ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-251400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-251400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-251400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-251400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-251400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-251400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-251400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT WED OCT 24 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
235 PM ADT TUE OCT 23 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION THAT A RELATIVELY BENIGN
PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF ALASKA BY OCTOBER STANDARDS BUT
STILL SEVERAL FEATURES CREATING FORECAST CHALLENGES IN BOTH DOMAINS.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS NW TO SE FROM NORTON
SOUND TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS IS THE SHORT
WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING NOW
LOSING STEAM AS IT CROSSES THE ALASKA RANGE. JUST ALONG AND BEHIND
THE TROF AXIS IS A AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHICH IS HELPING TO
PUSH THE TROF EAST TODAY. AND THEN FURTHER WEST IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT NEARING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON THE
MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR JUST SOUTH OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS WELL AS A NICE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVIDENCED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT IN DILLINGHAM LAST
HOUR. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN BERING
SEA IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN DIFFER ON
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT. GFS HAS A BETTER TRACK RECORD AND IS IN
FAIR ALIGNMENT WITH EUROPEAN MODELS SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE EASTERN
DOMAIN UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GFS HAS POOR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
CHALLENGING FORECAST AS MODEL QPF NOT MATCHING OUR CONCEPTUAL MODEL.
SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
SWINGS UP COOK INLET THIS EVENING AND INLAND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COUPLED WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
LENDS ITSELF TO AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE THE NORTHERN
KENAI, ANCHORAGE BOWL, AND MATSU VALLEY. THE 12Z RUN INSISTS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL NOT CROSS THE ALASKA RANGE LEAVING SOUTHCENTRAL AK DRY
TONIGHT. HISTORY SAYS OTHERWISE SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST
OF LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND ENDING AS THE UPPER TROF
SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE KENAI RADAR CLOSELY
THIS EVENING WAITING FOR THE SNOW TO DEVELOP.

A WARMER TREND BEGINS TOMORROW AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
AND ALLOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT UP THE INLET. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS...TOO CLOSE
TO CALL RIGHT NOW SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A HEALTHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND BRINGS GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA...THE AFOREMENTIONED TWO DISTINCT
SHORT WAVES AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE MOST
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND REMAINSW MOIST. THE FIRST WAVE HAS
DROPPED MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A COUPLE
INCHES IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT FROM THAT SYSTEM.
BELIEVE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL SET UP NICELY ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE TOO MUCH WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE SO
MOST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY ZONES WILL TRANSITION
OVER TO RAIN BY TOMORROW. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW IN
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING...COLD AIR WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A STRONG
GALE...POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AGAIN
CONFIDENCE DECREASES ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN PAST 36 HOURS OR SO
WHEN MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE SOLUTIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 170 172 176 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB OCT 07