Small Craft Advisory 781, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT SEP 22 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS.  AT
THE 48 HOUR POINT THE NAM MOVES THE LOW IN THE GULF ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION IS
FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION AS THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...CURRENT LONGWAVE PATTERN IS IN
TRANSITION TODAY.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE RIDGE
STATIONED OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOCATED IN THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFLECTS DOWN TO A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS TODAY.  AS THE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
AND WEAKEN IT...ALLOWING A STACKED LOW TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WESTERN BERING.  THIS WILL CREATE A FUNDAMENTAL
PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE REGION WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WEATHER LOOKS GOOD IN THE VERY SHORT TERM
FOR ALL BUT KODIAK...WITH RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORNING FOG CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM FOR
A FEW OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD
AS YESTERDAY MORNING.  GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OUT OF
CHANNELED AREAS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING VALDEZ...THESE WINDS
WILL DECREASE AS THE JET ALOFT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.  FOR KODIAK
TODAY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THAT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG
THE FRONT IN PARTICULAR. THE GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO
MOST OF THE COASTAL ZONES BEGINNING SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD RATHER QUICKLY. ON MONDAY THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WILL RECEIVE A SHORT RESPITE FROM THE WINDS AND
RAIN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING UP TOWARD THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE AK PEN IS ALREADY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
RAIN TO THESE LOCATIONS.  THIS WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING UP THE
AK PEN AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES MORE
EASTERLY. EXPECT GALES IN THE MARINES ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE AK
PEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL HAVE ABATED
SLIGHTLY BUT THE KUSKOKWIM REGIONS CAN EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MOVE INTO
THEIR SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS THE FIRST EFFECTS OF THE LOW IN THE BERING ARE FELT.

ALEUTIANS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS A MAJOR SURFACE
LOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING.  THIS IS A STRONG LOW AND STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH GALES FURTHER
EASTWARD.  AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER EXPECT AT LEAST STRONG GALES AND RAIN THROUGH
MONDAY FOR THE ALEUTIAN ZONES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
THE WESTERN BERING MOST OF THE REGION IS UNDER WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE MAIN JET WILL BE
VERY ZONAL ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND THE GULF OF ALASKA...STRONG WINDS
CAN BE FOUND AT ALL LEVELS SO EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IN
THE MARINE ZONES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 176 GALES 120 130 132 138 150 155 170 172 175 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF SEP 07