Small Craft Advisory 780, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT FRI SEP 21 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING . ALL HAVE LOCKED
ONTO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEAS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO WESTERN ALASKA TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL FILL AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIES OVER NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A LOT OF CLOUDS REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN BERING THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN OVER EASTERN ALASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE SKIES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND
TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY. WINDS AND RAINS
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND CENTRAL GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG IT SOUTH SIDE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY AND WILL ALSO
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OFF THE TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE
ENE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA SATURDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST TO THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN BERING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY

MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL INTERIOR MONDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STRONG LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
NORTON SOUND WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 176
         GALE 150, 155, 170, 172, 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

*** SEP 07