Small Craft Advisory 773, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS...AND DECENTLY
TOGETHER THROUGH 120. GFS ONCE AGAIN EDGES OUT THE NAM DUE TO BETTER
HANDLING OF FAST FLOW ALOFT...AND MORE AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA...WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA. FAIRLY FAST JET ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ENTERING
NORTH AMERICA NEAR YAKUTAT. AN EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND...PEELING MOISTURE FROM A
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LOW NEAR 38 NORTH LATITUDE 177 WEST LONGITUDE
INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL PORTION OF THE JET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL PUSH EASTWARD FOLLOWING THE
GULF LOW. A SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE STATE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE BERING SEA
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE STATE. THIS HAPPENS AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA DURING THE WEEKEND. SO WHILE THE MAINLAND ENJOYS A QUIET
WEEKEND...THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE WINDY AND WET.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BERING LOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING LOW BY MONDAY...WITH A
STRONG CONSOLIDATED ZONAL JET RIPPING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN ALASKA BACK INTO A WET PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 160 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 07