Gale Warning 653, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 202337
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. 
A 1006 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI AFTERNOON WILL MOVE 
TO 300 NM SOUTH OF AKHIOK AT 993 MB BY SAT AFTERNOON. A 990 MB LOW
700 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 960 MB BY SAT AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-211400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DECREASING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-211400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT DECREASING TO S 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-211400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT WEST OF ATKA. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT THU SEP 20 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

CORRECTION FOR TYPOS

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH EACH OTHER FOR
THE BIG PICTURE. THE LARGE LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA IS RESOLVED
VERY SIMILARLY ON THE NAM GFS AND ECMWF. THE UPCOMING WEATHER FEATURE
THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE THE MOST ON IS A WAVE THAT WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER THAN
THE GFS OR NAM. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION AS THE NAM
LOOKS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH. A SIMILAR
ISSUE OCCURS WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY WITH THE MODELS ALL ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP BUT THE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SATURDAY
DIFFERS BY AROUND 600 MILES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE GFS
IS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS COMMON IN THIS PATTERN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BIG WEATHER FEATURE REMAINS THE
LARGE LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. IT HAS WEAKENED TO AROUND 988
MB AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ON SHORE BETWEEN ST
MICHAELS AND UNALAKLEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE JET STREAM IS NOSING
ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THEN INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA BUT WILL RECEDE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY FRIDAY AS
THE BERING SEA LOW REMNANTS MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AROUND THE BERING SEA LOW THROUGH TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO
OCCUR IN MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS BROAD PASS AS WELL AS ISABEL AND
MENTASTA PASSES. HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE DENALI HIGHWAY SAW SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LAST NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN
TONIGHT AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE ACTIVE FALL SEASON IS UPON US. ANOTHER
LARGE LOW APPEARS SET TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BE SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE ONE THAT JUST
WENT THROUGH...BUT COLD AIR IN EASTERN RUSSIA WILL GET ENTRAINED INTO
THIS LOW AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA EVEN LOWER THAN THEY ARE NOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 160 165 170 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ/SAM
SEP 07