Small Craft Advisory 722, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...TRY NOT TO EVEN LOOK AT THE NAM OR GFS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS FROM THE OVERNIGHT MODEL
RUN. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY THE TRIPLE POINT DID INDEED FORM IN THE
NORTH GULF COAST AREA BUT THE MODELS ALL MISSED IT AND ARE PLAYING
FROM FAR BEHIND IN THIS AREA RIGHT NOW. THEY SEEM TO CATCH UP AS THE
LOW MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT. THEE IS A GOOD CHANGE THAT THE NEWER RUNS
WILL RECOGNIZE THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND BE BETTER.
OUT WEST IT IS CERTAIN THAT A MODERATE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BY THURSDAY BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE STILL NOT IN
AGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. LIKELY THAT THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE JUST EAST OF SHEMYA WILL AN ELONGATED FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING
DIFFICULTY WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DIDI INDEED DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA OVERNIGHT AS WAS TALKED ABOUT
YESTERDAY. THIS TRIPLE POINT LOW HAS DEEPENED TO THE POINT WHERE IT
IS THE MAIN LOW AND PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE JET STREAM IS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RUNNING INTO
THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN
ENERGY IN THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ON SHORE NEAR YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AS IS WEAKENS
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS EXACTLY WHERE
THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES. AS STATED EARLIER IT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ON SHORE NEAR YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY AS THE MODELS MISSED IT. SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS
LOW BUT ARE NOT MAKING IT PAST THE BARRIER MOUNTAINS THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY MAKE IT TO INLAND AREAS.
SOME SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
OLD LOW REMAIN OVER IN THAT AREA. SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATE WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD RESULTING IN
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. A
BIG QUESTION MARK RIGHT NOW IS HOW FAR TO THE EAST THIS STRONG SOUTH
TO TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 150 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 07