Gale Warning 619, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 061105
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 981 MB LOW NEAR ATTU ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF ADAK THU
NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TO BRISTOL BAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES TO 125 NM NORTH OF ADAK
AT 982 MB FRI EVENING. 

$$

PKZ150-070200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-070200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-070200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-070200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-070200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-070200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-070200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-070200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-070200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-070200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-070200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-070200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT THU SEP 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT WED SEP 5 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATION AND PERFORMANCE IS MUCH MUCH
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY. THE LOW IN THE GULF IS RECOGNIZED BY THE GFS
AND NAM AND THEY BOTH HAVE A REASONABLE PLACEMENT AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE FOR IT.
IN THE WEST THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE QUITE SIMILAR AND LOOK TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR SOLUTION WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AROUND THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BETTER AND THE NAM
IS THE OUTLIER IN THE POSITIONING OF THE MAIN LOW IN THE LONGER TERM.
THE OTHER BIG MODEL QUESTION THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN HOW A LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WILL DO SO. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AS TO THERE BEING A MAIN LOW IN
THE BERING SEA WITH THIS SECONDARY WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GULF.
HOWEVER THEY HAVE BOTH BEEN POOR IN THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF IT
WITH WILD VARIATIONS FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN. BOTH MODELS HAVE NOW
SETTLED INTO A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE WAVE BEING VERY WEAK
AND THE FRONT SLOW MOVING. THIS IS THE SOLUTION WE WILL BE USING
SINCE THERE NOW SEEMS TO BE SOME STABILITY IN THE MODELS. HOWEVER IT
STILL BEARS WATCHING TO MAKE SURE A STRONG WAVE DOES NOT DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND
YESTERDAY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENED OVERNIGHT. IT IS
NOW HEADING EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE JUNEAU FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT
AND THEN SLOWLY TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ALREADY IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL
PUSH TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A RESULT OF THE LOW PERSISTING NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND AND NOW PULLING OUT IS THAT IT IS BRINGING SOME OF THE
CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WITH IT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE UP THERE COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN THERE TODAY.
SOME SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING IN THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM AREAS
DUE TO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE LIFTED INDEX WAS BELOW
ZERO THIS MORNING AT ANCHORAGE KING SALMON AND BETHEL.
EXPECT RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE
AREA OF BIGGEST CONCERN BEGINS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY AND
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH PLENTY OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO BRING CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 171 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 07