Small Craft Advisory 711, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE NAM STILL A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE GFS ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA IS STILL MOVING EAST
PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
AHEAD OF IT.

PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTCENTRAL
INTERIOR. ONCE AGAIN THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
HEAVIER CLOUD COVER OVER THESE AREAS TODAY. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS CLOUDY.

THE NEW STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHS AS IT
MOVES EAST ALONG THE CHAIN AT ABOUT 20 MPH. GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND
THE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND UNIMAK ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE
BERING SEA REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST..
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN A BIT TONIGHT AS
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES BUILDS OVER THE AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. KODIAK WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RAIN TONIGHT AS THE WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEATHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING WIND AND
RAIN INTO THE LOWER KENAI PENINSULA. THE RAIN AND WIND WILL MOVE INTO
THE REST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY AND
WILL SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR SECTION TUESDAY. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN
THE RAIN SHADOW OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS SO SHOULD NOT
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE KODIAK ISLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE PATH OF THE STORM IS WILL MOVE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND TONIGHT
AND UP THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TUESDAY. RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS OVER INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA MONDAY. AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY, RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHWEST THOUGH THEY MAY BE JUST AS STRONG AS THE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
THE STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO GALE FORCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAKER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE BERING
SEA, THE GENERAL FLOW WILL CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A NEW STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK TUESDAY
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN MERGE WITH THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130, 132, 138, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 171, 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 07