Gale Warning 613, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 032312
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON SEP 3 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 MB LOW 75 NM NORTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 75 NM EAST OF
KODIAK CITY AT 990 MB TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NEAR YAKUTAT AT 999
MB WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-041400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT MON SEP 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT MON SEP 3 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT TOWARD N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT MON SEP 3 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL ISLAND. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT MON SEP 3 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT MON SEP 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING 35 KT LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT MON SEP 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT MON SEP 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 
25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT MON SEP 3 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT MON SEP 3 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN SEP 2 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE NAM STILL A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE GFS ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA IS STILL MOVING EAST
PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
AHEAD OF IT.

PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTCENTRAL
INTERIOR. ONCE AGAIN THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
HEAVIER CLOUD COVER OVER THESE AREAS TODAY. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS CLOUDY.

THE NEW STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHS AS IT
MOVES EAST ALONG THE CHAIN AT ABOUT 20 MPH. GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND
THE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND UNIMAK ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE
BERING SEA REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST..
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN A BIT TONIGHT AS
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES BUILDS OVER THE AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. KODIAK WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RAIN TONIGHT AS THE WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEATHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING WIND AND
RAIN INTO THE LOWER KENAI PENINSULA. THE RAIN AND WIND WILL MOVE INTO
THE REST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY AND
WILL SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR SECTION TUESDAY. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN
THE RAIN SHADOW OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS SO SHOULD NOT
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION AT ALL. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE KODIAK ISLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE PATH OF THE STORM IS WILL MOVE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND TONIGHT
AND UP THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TUESDAY. RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS OVER INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA MONDAY. AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY, RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHWEST THOUGH THEY MAY BE JUST AS STRONG AS THE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
THE STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO GALE FORCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAKER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE BERING
SEA, THE GENERAL FLOW WILL CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A NEW STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK TUESDAY
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN MERGE WITH THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130, 132, 138, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 171, 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 07