Small Craft Advisory 696, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON AUG 27 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. THE NAM
FORECAST SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIVERGE FROM THE MORE CONSISTENT
UKMET/GFS SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH GFS MODEL WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ANALYSIS IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST TREND. UPPER LOW OVER THE SE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
EXPECT CENTER TO DRIFT TO THE NE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA RIDGE IS DAMPENED AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE BERING SEA THU AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN FRI MORNING. A SMALL
AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS PICKED UP WELL
BY THE NCEP MODELS. SAT PIC AND RADAR DATA SHOW WAVE MOVING INTO ZONE
145/111 THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE INDICATED
UNSTABLE AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. EXPECT WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL NORTH OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUE. CONDITIONS SHOULD STABLIZE SOME ON TUE AS TEMPS WARM
ALOFT. GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND SETS UP TUE AND WED.
DRYING AND COMBINATION WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS AND FAIR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE FOR A GENERALLY WARM LATE SUMMER DAYS INLAND...COOLER ALONG
COAST WITH SEABREEZES.

LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTH GULF SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. EAST
TO NE GALES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL WILL DIMINISH TUE THROUGH WED. RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL BREAK UP AS FLOW SHIFTS NORTHERLY TUE NGT/WED.

.WEST...
UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES OVER SW ALASKA. UNSTABLE AIR SHIFTS EAST OF
THE DELTA TUE WITH COOLING TEMPS IN THE LOWER LAYERS. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/BRISTOL BAY INTO
WED...STABILIZING SOME THU. SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SW AK WILL TEND TO
PROLONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUE. RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA DRIFTS EAST OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SO EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO BE GENERAL RULE OVER
WATER AND COASTAL AREAS(PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT). WEAK LOW CENTER
MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE
FORCE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. CURRENT GIRDS WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE USED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 138 AND 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC AUG 07