Gale Warning 573, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 281123
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 1003 MB 
AND MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
WEAKER LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$

PKZ120-290200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-290200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-290200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-290200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-290200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. NW OF BARREN ISLANDS...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 3 FT NW OF BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-290200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-290200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-290200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-290200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE AUG 28 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT OR LESS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON AUG 27 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. THE NAM
FORECAST SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIVERGE FROM THE MORE CONSISTENT
UKMET/GFS SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH GFS MODEL WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ANALYSIS IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST TREND. UPPER LOW OVER THE SE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
EXPECT CENTER TO DRIFT TO THE NE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA RIDGE IS DAMPENED AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE BERING SEA THU AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN FRI MORNING. A SMALL
AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS PICKED UP WELL
BY THE NCEP MODELS. SAT PIC AND RADAR DATA SHOW WAVE MOVING INTO ZONE
145/111 THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE INDICATED
UNSTABLE AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. EXPECT WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL NORTH OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUE. CONDITIONS SHOULD STABLIZE SOME ON TUE AS TEMPS WARM
ALOFT. GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND SETS UP TUE AND WED.
DRYING AND COMBINATION WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS AND FAIR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE FOR A GENERALLY WARM LATE SUMMER DAYS INLAND...COOLER ALONG
COAST WITH SEABREEZES.

LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTH GULF SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. EAST
TO NE GALES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL WILL DIMINISH TUE THROUGH WED. RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL BREAK UP AS FLOW SHIFTS NORTHERLY TUE NGT/WED.

.WEST...
UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES OVER SW ALASKA. UNSTABLE AIR SHIFTS EAST OF
THE DELTA TUE WITH COOLING TEMPS IN THE LOWER LAYERS. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/BRISTOL BAY INTO
WED...STABILIZING SOME THU. SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SW AK WILL TEND TO
PROLONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUE. RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA DRIFTS EAST OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SO EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO BE GENERAL RULE OVER
WATER AND COASTAL AREAS(PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT). WEAK LOW CENTER
MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE
FORCE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. CURRENT GIRDS WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE USED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 138 AND 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC AUG 07