Small Craft Advisory 510, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS LOOK GOOD THROUGH 60 HOURS AND NOT TOO BAD
THROUGH 84 HOURS. GFS ENSEMBLE HOLDS TOGETHER WELL THROUGH ABOUT 60
HOURS AND THEN STARTS TO UNWIND. GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS
AND NAM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT
MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY IS NOW ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. IT WILL BECOME A NON-FEATURE
FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO
PERSIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UNLIKE RECENT DAYS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN UP A LITTLE WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA AND A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA PUTTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA AS WELL AS BRISTOL BAY
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AREAS EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE SHOULD SEE
SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MUCH
WARMER DAY THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MAINLAND ZONES WEST OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP BERING SEA STRATUS IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN ALASKA SHOULD BE
WARMER OVER THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THAN THEY WERE THIS PAST
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. OTHER THAN THAT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS CLOUDS IN UPCOMING
DAYS. BERING SEA STRATUS WILL PERSIST UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE THERE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 07