Small Craft Advisory 511, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 101256 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN JUN 10 2007

UPDATED ZONE 121

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 460 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL WEAKEN TO 1001 MB 320 NM
SOUTH OF JUNEAU BY LATE SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-110200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SUN JUN 10 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-110200-
RESURRECTION BAY
500 AM ADT SUN JUN 10 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KT
NEAR SEWARD THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-110200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SUN JUN 10 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SUN JUN 10 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-110200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN JUN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SUN JUN 10 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SUN JUN 10 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-110200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SUN JUN 10 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-110200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SUN JUN 10 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT BY MIDNIGHT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT BY MIDNIGHT.
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT JUN 9 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS LOOK GOOD THROUGH 60 HOURS AND NOT TOO BAD
THROUGH 84 HOURS. GFS ENSEMBLE HOLDS TOGETHER WELL THROUGH ABOUT 60
HOURS AND THEN STARTS TO UNWIND. GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS
AND NAM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT
MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY IS NOW ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. IT WILL BECOME A NON-FEATURE
FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO
PERSIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UNLIKE RECENT DAYS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN UP A LITTLE WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA AND A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA PUTTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA AS WELL AS BRISTOL BAY
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AREAS EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE SHOULD SEE
SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MUCH
WARMER DAY THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MAINLAND ZONES WEST OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL KEEP BERING SEA STRATUS IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN ALASKA SHOULD BE
WARMER OVER THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THAN THEY WERE THIS PAST
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. OTHER THAN THAT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS CLOUDS IN UPCOMING
DAYS. BERING SEA STRATUS WILL PERSIST UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE THERE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 07