Small Craft Advisory 503, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THE MIDTERM. RATHER
THAN COMING INTO LINE WITH EACHOTHER THEY ARE FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. STILL HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE GFS-40. WILL FAVOR THE
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MODELS OVER THE CURRENT AND PERSIST WITH THE
GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
BEFORE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AK PENN THU AND FRI. SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS FEATURE AND PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWEST AK BENEATH THE RIDGE. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND CHANNELED
TERRAIN INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CENTER ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TEMPORARILY
REPLACES THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR FRI. LOW CENTER EVENTUALLY ENDS
UP OVER THE YUKON-DELTA SAT MORNING WITH TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED SE TO A
LOW SW OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AS
THE INTERIOR TROUGH REMAINS. THIS WILL MEAN GUSTY GAP
WINDS AGAIN ESPECIALLY THROUGH ANCHORAGE AND OFF THE KNIK GLACIER.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHWEST AK AND KODIAK AS THE LOW SITS
JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
BECOMING MUCH MORE STABLE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH.
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER SW AK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETS UP IN THE REGION.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ALEUTIANS DRAWING IN MORE LOW CLOUDS BUT
THE SHOWERS SHOULD ABATE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. SO LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS
AND FOG TO BE MAIN CONCERN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IN THE ALEUTIANS EXPECT A WEAK LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO
BRING MORE RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL HOLD
OFF ANY MAJOR ADVANCE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN OVER MAINLAND AK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK
LOWS ROTATING THROUGH THE GULF AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WE
MIGHT SEE A WARM UP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEXT WEEK IF MODELS HOLD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120.
FIRE WEATHER...RFW 141 151.

RNW JUN 07