Gale Warning 504, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 080104 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

CORRECTION FOR ZONE 125

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK WILL MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF BRISTOL BAY THU NIGHT AND MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK
CITY AS A 1000 MB LOW FRI NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-081400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-081400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SOUTH
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-081400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...WEST WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-081400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-081400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-081400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU JUN 7 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THE MIDTERM. RATHER
THAN COMING INTO LINE WITH EACHOTHER THEY ARE FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. STILL HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE GFS-40. WILL FAVOR THE
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MODELS OVER THE CURRENT AND PERSIST WITH THE
GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
BEFORE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AK PENN THU AND FRI. SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS FEATURE AND PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHWEST AK BENEATH THE RIDGE. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND CHANNELED
TERRAIN INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CENTER ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TEMPORARILY
REPLACES THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR FRI. LOW CENTER EVENTUALLY ENDS
UP OVER THE YUKON-DELTA SAT MORNING WITH TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED SE TO A
LOW SW OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AS
THE INTERIOR TROUGH REMAINS. THIS WILL MEAN GUSTY GAP
WINDS AGAIN ESPECIALLY THROUGH ANCHORAGE AND OFF THE KNIK GLACIER.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHWEST AK AND KODIAK AS THE LOW SITS
JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
BECOMING MUCH MORE STABLE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH.
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER SW AK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETS UP IN THE REGION.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ALEUTIANS DRAWING IN MORE LOW CLOUDS BUT
THE SHOWERS SHOULD ABATE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. SO LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS
AND FOG TO BE MAIN CONCERN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IN THE ALEUTIANS EXPECT A WEAK LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO
BRING MORE RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL HOLD
OFF ANY MAJOR ADVANCE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN OVER MAINLAND AK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK
LOWS ROTATING THROUGH THE GULF AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WE
MIGHT SEE A WARM UP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEXT WEEK IF MODELS HOLD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120.
FIRE WEATHER...RFW 141 151.

RNW JUN 07