Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 020141 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
440 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

CORRECTED TO ADD SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS ZONE 185

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 968 MB 440 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
TUESDAY AND WEAKENS. A 971 MB LOW MOVES TO 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CENTER INTENSIFIES TO 962 MB AS IT MOVES TO 190
NM EAST OF SHEMYA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW WIND 20 KT BY LATE
EVENING. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-021500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ165-021500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-021500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-021500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-021500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
440 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-021500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 021236
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

NORTHERLY FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW DEVELOPING 700 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL INTENSIFY TO 984 MB AND MOVE TO 350 NM SOUTH
OF SHEMYA BY TUE EVENING. THIS LOW PROCEEDS TO STRENGTHEN TO 964 MB
AS IT MOVES TO 175 NM WEST OF ADAK BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-030300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-030300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN.  
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 19 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...E WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. PACIFIC SIDE...SOUTHWEST WIND
60 KT. SEAS 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT . SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-030300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
655 AM AST MON JAN 1 2007

CORRECTED PUBLIC/MARINE WARNING SUMMARY

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...12Z IR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE FILLING LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL BAND IS STRETCHED SW/NE
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI ACROSS VALDEZ AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
PAIH RADAR SHOWING THE PRECIP BAND FROM THIS FRONT GRADUALLY ADVANCING
WEST TOWARDS THE KENAI. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS BAND IS ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR WHICH IS INHIBITING PRECIP FORMATION
ACROSS THE KENAI AND WEST. THIS LOWS ORIGINAL PARENT LOW IS LOCATED
FARTHER TO THE WEST...WELL SOUTH OF UNALASKA ISLAND. THIS LOW IS MOST
DEINFINTELY PAST ITS PRIME AND IS GRADUALLY DECAYING AS IT IS PUSHED
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY STRONG JET LOCATED ALONG
40N. NORTHERLY FLOW/COLD ADVECTION IS YIELDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BERING SEA WITH BLOWING SNOW OCCURRING IN THE PRIBILOFS.

MODELS...A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE CURRENT
LOW IN THE GULF. THE NAM HAS THE FLOW PRETTY MUCH FALLING APART AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE IN THE VICINITY OF CORDOVA WHILE THE GFS HANGS THE LOW UP
OVER THE KENAI AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE NEXT LOW THAT COMES INTO THE
GULF. NAM FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PANNING OUT BETTER THIS MORNING PER
SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM FALLS APART...MODELS COME
INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT LOW INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA...THE OLD LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF UNALASKA...AND UP INTO THE
EASTERN KENAI/WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE TUE NIGHT. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD DURING THE MID-RANGE IN THE WEST AS THERE
IS CONSIDRABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SERIES OF LOWS
ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE INTO THU. THE STRATEGY TO
HANDLE THIS WAS TO NUDGE TOWARDS THE NEW RUN OF THE GFS IN THE WEST.

FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY AS THE REMANTS OF THE LOW MOVE
OVER THE REGION AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 700MB PERSISTS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A BLLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOMPSON PASS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
COMBINE WITH FALLING SNOW TO CREATE PERIODIC WHITEOUTS. VISIBILITY
SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS DROP OFF AS THE LOW MOVES
NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE MATSU IS A
LITTLE DICIER. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO CREATE
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER IF THE LOW PULLS MUCH FARTHER
EAST...THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE. NONETHELESS...GOING WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR TODAY AND LOW ON SNOWFALL TOTALS...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GULF HOLDS A LITTLE MORE PROMISE AS THE
MODELS TRACK IT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN THE CURRENT LOW...TAKING IT
OVER THE EASTERN KENAI. AT THE SAME TIME THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR DECENT
SNOWFALL OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL/MATSU AS EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE LOW
CONVERGES AND OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC FRONT. GOING LIKELY POPS FOR TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE LOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
FILLS...A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR ANCHORAGE. AS USUAL THE NORTH GULF
COAST WILL ALSO SEE SOLID PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AS WILL LOCATIONS
ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ZONE. AFTER THIS...MODEL
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AS
THE NEXT MAJOR LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND STAY SOUTH OF
THE AOR...THOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONES. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS ALSO INDICATED AS AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS SHIFTS SOUTH WITH SOME VERY COLD 850 TEMPS MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE BERING SEA...AND THE ALEUTIANS...
MAINLAND SOUTHWEST STAYS DRY BUT CLOUDY INTO TUE NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
SPILLING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
OTHERWISE...THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DUE TO
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE STORM TRACKS STAY
WELL SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST OVER VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE BERING SEA
THROUGH TODAY AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING INTO WED UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SHOULD DIMINISH
AS FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SERIES OF LOW
TO AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS. THE EXACT DISPOSITION OF THESE LOWS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AS A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH A CLUSTER OF UPPER LEVEL VORTMAXES
MOVES EAST WITH ANY ONE OF THESE VORTMAXES BEING A CANDIDATE FOR SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. THE GENERAL PICTURE THOUGH IS A STORMY ONE FOR THE
ALEUTIANS. DETAILS SHOULD BECOME BETTER RESOLVED AS WE MOVE FARTHER INTO
THE NEW YEAR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131
MARINE...GALE 120 121 129 130 132 150
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 160 165 179 185

WOOD DEC 06