Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN DEC 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SET OF MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT THE NAM AND UKMET MODELS INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE
GFS. SO THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM
ENTERING THE GULF MONDAY MORNING. EITHER GFS OR NAM WILL WORK OUT
WEST.

UPPER AIR...
THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
FORM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA MONDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL DRIFT OVER KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS INTO THE
GULF OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS.

THE 300 MB JET WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AT SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...
A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND MONDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY.

RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MOSTLY SNOW
INTO THE INNER PARTS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LATE MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
MOVE CLOSER TO THE SOUND MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST
INTO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR ANCHORAGE SINCE THERE IS NO UPPER
SUPPORT.

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN GAPS ALONG THE CHUGACH
RANGE AND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WINDIER SPOTS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST DOMAIN...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FALL.

THE NEXT STORM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOMPSON PASS.
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 132, 140, 150, 155, 170, 172, 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 06