Small Craft Advisory 482, NWS Anchorage, AK

000
FZAK51 PAFC 311856 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1045 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

UPDATED ZONES 129 130 120 121 125

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 997 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY THIS
MORNING MOVES TO 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1000 MB THIS
EVENING AND DISSIPATES. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW MOVES TO
220 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT LATE FRI NIGHT.


$$

PKZ120-010200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1045 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT THIS EVENING. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010200-
RESURRECTION BAY
1045 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...EAST WIND INCREASING TO 20 KTS. SEAS 
         7 FT. RAIN.
         NORTH OF CAINES HEAD...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...EAST WIND 25 KTS. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
           NORTH OF CAINES HEAD...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.    
           RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1045 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010200-
PASSAGE CANAL
1045 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-010200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1045AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E TO NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-010200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 312303
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY THIS EVENING CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 996 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC ON FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-011400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-011400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-011400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS E WIND 25
KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-011400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 011156
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 1 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TODAY WHILE A BROAD
1000 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A WEAK
1008 MB LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF NEAR 250 NM WEST OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS FRI NIGHT AND MOVES TO 100 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY
SAT AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE LOW INTO SUN.
$$

PKZ120-020200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-020200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 1 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-020200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 1 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-020200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 1 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-020200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 1 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 1 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-020200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 1 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-020200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 1 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-020200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT FRI JUN 1 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH TWO
MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS...ONE A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF ATKA AND
THE OTHER JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK. INTERESTINGLY...THE ALEUTIAN LOW
IS DEEPER IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AND WIDER REACHING...BUT ITS WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THAN THE MORE POTENT LITTLE LOW NEAR KODIAK. THIS GULF LOW
HAS SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDE AS WELL AS
IN FAVORABLY ORIENTED TERRAIN GAPS IN SOUTHCENTRAL. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS EAST FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW NEARLY TO THE GULF LOW. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ONSHORE THE NORTH GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
JUST AHEAD OF THE PUSH OF WINDS AND RAIN WITH THE MAIN GULF LOW.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN LINKED TO THE PREVIOUS LOW WHICH PASSED NEAR
KODIAK AND WHOSE REMNANTS ARE NOW LOCATED NEAR CHIGNIK. ONLY ABOUT A
100 MILE GAP AT MOST EXISTS BETWEEN THE RAIN SHIELDS BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS.

THE GULF LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK THIS MORNING DISSIPATES TONIGHT
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF KODIAK JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT AND PUSH OF RAIN AND WIND WILL STILL IMPACT THE
NORTH GULF COAST TODAY. THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE CHAIN. BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS FOR THE REGION WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ORIENTATION FROM EAST WEST TO NORTH SOUTH...WITH THE WEAKENING
ALEUTIAN LOW BEING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW INTO THE EASTERN BERING. THIS SETUP
WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FINE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND EVEN INTO
THE EXTENDED THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT TOO BAD. FOR THE
EXTENDED...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW TO MOVE
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MONDAY...AND MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
SETTING UP IN THE EASTERN BERING WITH GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE
WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
BOTTOM LINE IS CONTINUED RAINY AND LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THE USUAL FAVORED AREAS WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN
AND WIND. FOR THE RAIN...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS INTO EASTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM...AS WELL AS FROM KODIAK OVER TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. MULTI-INCH RAINFALL DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN THE NORM OVER SOME AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO. THE
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS...KNIK WINDS NEAR PALMER...AND WINDS IN CORDOVA
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TODAY TO WARRANT A STRONG WIND HEADLINE...WITH
THE WINDS IN TURNAGAIN ARM BEING THE STRONGEST AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD PUSH OF THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS INTO
ANCHORAGE FROM THE SEWARD HIGHWAY WEST BOTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANCHORAGE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALSO BECOMES NOT AS MOIST. A WEAK LOW MOVES NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL BE PRETTY MINOR COMPARED TO RECENT SYSTEMS AND WILL
BRING ENHANCED RAIN MAINLY TO THE USUAL FAVORED COASTAL AREAS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE FLOW NOT BEING AS MOIST OR STRONG BY SATURDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...BUT NOTHING TOO MAJOR.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN...
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE CHAIN...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRYING OUT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW TO
CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS IN PLACE OF THE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN
THERE. LOW PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO BE PRESENT
AWAY FROM THE RIDGE OVER BOTH THE MAINLAND AND THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF ON MONDAY...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
GULF COAST WITH RAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 130 350.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY MAY 07