Small Craft Advisory 481, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312315
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 996 MB LOW AT 49N 167W THIS EVENING MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC ON
FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING THROUGH SAT EVENING. A 997 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN KAMCHATKA SAT
NIGHT MOVES 300 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-011400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-011400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-011400-
UNALASKA BAY
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-011400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
315 PM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 14 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU MAY 31 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH TWO
MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS...ONE A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF ATKA AND
THE OTHER JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK. INTERESTINGLY...THE ALEUTIAN LOW
IS DEEPER IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AND WIDER REACHING...BUT ITS WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THAN THE MORE POTENT LITTLE LOW NEAR KODIAK. THIS GULF LOW
HAS SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDE AS WELL AS
IN FAVORABLY ORIENTED TERRAIN GAPS IN SOUTHCENTRAL. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS EAST FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW NEARLY TO THE GULF LOW. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ONSHORE THE NORTH GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
JUST AHEAD OF THE PUSH OF WINDS AND RAIN WITH THE MAIN GULF LOW.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN LINKED TO THE PREVIOUS LOW WHICH PASSED NEAR
KODIAK AND WHOSE REMNANTS ARE NOW LOCATED NEAR CHIGNIK. ONLY ABOUT A
100 MILE GAP AT MOST EXISTS BETWEEN THE RAIN SHIELDS BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS.

THE GULF LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK THIS MORNING DISSIPATES TONIGHT
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF KODIAK JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT AND PUSH OF RAIN AND WIND WILL STILL IMPACT THE
NORTH GULF COAST TODAY. THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE CHAIN. BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS FOR THE REGION WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ORIENTATION FROM EAST WEST TO NORTH SOUTH...WITH THE WEAKENING
ALEUTIAN LOW BEING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW INTO THE EASTERN BERING. THIS SETUP
WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FINE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND EVEN INTO
THE EXTENDED THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT TOO BAD. FOR THE
EXTENDED...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW TO MOVE
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MONDAY...AND MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE
SETTING UP IN THE EASTERN BERING WITH GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE
WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
BOTTOM LINE IS CONTINUED RAINY AND LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THE USUAL FAVORED AREAS WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN
AND WIND. FOR THE RAIN...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS INTO EASTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM...AS WELL AS FROM KODIAK OVER TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. MULTI-INCH RAINFALL DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN THE NORM OVER SOME AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO. THE
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS...KNIK WINDS NEAR PALMER...AND WINDS IN CORDOVA
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TODAY TO WARRANT A STRONG WIND HEADLINE...WITH
THE WINDS IN TURNAGAIN ARM BEING THE STRONGEST AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD PUSH OF THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS INTO
ANCHORAGE FROM THE SEWARD HIGHWAY WEST BOTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANCHORAGE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALSO BECOMES NOT AS MOIST. A WEAK LOW MOVES NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL BE PRETTY MINOR COMPARED TO RECENT SYSTEMS AND WILL
BRING ENHANCED RAIN MAINLY TO THE USUAL FAVORED COASTAL AREAS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE FLOW NOT BEING AS MOIST OR STRONG BY SATURDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...BUT NOTHING TOO MAJOR.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN...
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE CHAIN...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRYING OUT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW TO
CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS IN PLACE OF THE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN
THERE. LOW PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO BE PRESENT
AWAY FROM THE RIDGE OVER BOTH THE MAINLAND AND THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF ON MONDAY...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
GULF COAST WITH RAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 130 350.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY MAY 07