Small Craft Advisory 476, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TWO STRONG
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ONE JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVING NORTHEAST AND THE OTHER IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD KODIAK. BOTH LOWS HAVE PLENTY OF
RAIN AND WIND EXTENDING WELL OUT FROM THEIR CENTERS. A NARROW STRIP
OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM SAND
POINT TO BETHEL...AS WELL AS A WEAK NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE LOW. BOTH AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE DIEING SOON AS LOW PRESSURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER THE
REGION.

A WEAKER BUT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS MORNING IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
WEST ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER. THIS SHORTWAVE BROUGHT RAINFALL
TOTALS GENERALLY AROUND HALF AN INCH TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY AND POSSIBLY
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS.

THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLOW DOWN OR STALL SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE GULF LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
KODIAK AND DISSIPATE OR MERGE INTO THE MORE DOMINANT ALEUTIAN LOW
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY REGARDING THE
ALEUTIAN LOW AND THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A NEW TRIPLE POINT
FURTHER EAST TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK. REGARDLESS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN AVERAGE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS. MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY BECOMES QUITE POOR BEYOND SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE GULF LOW MOVING TOWARD KODIAK HAS BROUGHT A BIT OF AN EARLIER
START TO RAIN FOR COASTAL AREAS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SO
FAR...HOWEVER...THE RAIN IS FAIRLY LIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO KODIAK. NOT MUCH RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INLAND WITH THIS LOW. EVEN AFTER THE GULF LOW
DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOIST ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW OR FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE GULF. EXPECT
CONTINUED RAIN TO COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL WITH GENERALLY DRY BUT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS INLAND.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES BETHEL...THOUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT GETTING SOME RAIN. BRISTOL BAY LOOKS
GENERALLY DRY TODAY...ALTHOUGH RAIN COULD SPILL OVER THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE FROM THE GULF LOW ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS.
MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL HAVE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING TERRIBLY HEAVY IS
EXPECTED DUE TO DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A WIDE REACHING LOW PRESSURE A LITTLE SOUTH OF ADAK THIS MORNING
WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE ENTIRE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING
THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
BERING. AFTER THIS...HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY IS POOR
AND HAVE CHOSEN TO STICK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 130 132 138 350.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY MAY 07