Gale Warning 489, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 292339
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY THIS EVENING MOVES TO
100 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 998 MB WED AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATES
WED EVENING AS IT MERGES WITH A LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS. A SECONDARY 997
MB LOW FORMS THU EVENING 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT.
$$

PKZ120-301400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-301400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT NORTH OF CAINES HEAD. NE WIND 30 KT CAINES
HEAD SOUTH. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT 6 FT CAINES HEAD SOUTH. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ125-301400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-301400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-301400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-301400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 29 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TWO STRONG
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ONE JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVING NORTHEAST AND THE OTHER IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD KODIAK. BOTH LOWS HAVE PLENTY OF
RAIN AND WIND EXTENDING WELL OUT FROM THEIR CENTERS. A NARROW STRIP
OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM SAND
POINT TO BETHEL...AS WELL AS A WEAK NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE LOW. BOTH AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE DIEING SOON AS LOW PRESSURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER THE
REGION.

A WEAKER BUT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS MORNING IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
WEST ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER. THIS SHORTWAVE BROUGHT RAINFALL
TOTALS GENERALLY AROUND HALF AN INCH TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA LAST
NIGHT AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY AND POSSIBLY
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS.

THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLOW DOWN OR STALL SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE GULF LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
KODIAK AND DISSIPATE OR MERGE INTO THE MORE DOMINANT ALEUTIAN LOW
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY REGARDING THE
ALEUTIAN LOW AND THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A NEW TRIPLE POINT
FURTHER EAST TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK. REGARDLESS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN AVERAGE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS. MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY BECOMES QUITE POOR BEYOND SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE GULF LOW MOVING TOWARD KODIAK HAS BROUGHT A BIT OF AN EARLIER
START TO RAIN FOR COASTAL AREAS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SO
FAR...HOWEVER...THE RAIN IS FAIRLY LIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO KODIAK. NOT MUCH RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INLAND WITH THIS LOW. EVEN AFTER THE GULF LOW
DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOIST ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW OR FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE GULF. EXPECT
CONTINUED RAIN TO COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL WITH GENERALLY DRY BUT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS INLAND.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES BETHEL...THOUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT GETTING SOME RAIN. BRISTOL BAY LOOKS
GENERALLY DRY TODAY...ALTHOUGH RAIN COULD SPILL OVER THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE FROM THE GULF LOW ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS.
MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL HAVE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING TERRIBLY HEAVY IS
EXPECTED DUE TO DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A WIDE REACHING LOW PRESSURE A LITTLE SOUTH OF ADAK THIS MORNING
WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE ENTIRE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING
THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IT LOOKS LIKE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
BERING. AFTER THIS...HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY IS POOR
AND HAVE CHOSEN TO STICK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 130 132 138 350.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY MAY 07