Small Craft Advisory 445, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171208 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

CORRECTED ZONE 120.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 996 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK THIS MORNING MOVES TO 270 
NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK AT 1000 MB THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATES BY
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-180200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 30 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-180200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-180200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-180200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 172319
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 53N 156W WILL DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRI.
$$

PKZ120-181400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT LATE IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-181400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-181400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-181400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT INCREASING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-181400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED MAY 16 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THIS
FOLLOWS THE TREND FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN WHICH THE NAM HAS
JUST NOT BEEN ABLE TO GRASP FEATURES VERY WELL...EVEN IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM. THE UKMET AND EVEN OLDER VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AT LEAST OUT TO 60 HOURS. AFTER
60 HOURS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A LOW THAT WILL BE NEAR 50 NORTH
LATITUDE 140 WEST LONGITUDE...THOUGH THE OVER ALL PATTERN IN THE
VICINITY OF ALASKA IS WELL AGREED UPON THROUGH AT LEAST 84 HOURS BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS...BUT SEE DISCLAIMER IN THE ANALYSIS SECTION. THE
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH ALMOST DAY 10...WITH A
SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT PATTERN CHANGE AROUND DAY 5 THAT IS DISCUSSED
IN THE EXTENDED SECTION BELOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHARP 500 MB EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA AND A DEEP UPPER LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE BERING SEA. THE MAIN JET STREAM IS RUNNING ALONG 40 DEGREES
NORTH...THEN SWINGING NORTHEAST TO NEAR SEATTLE. THEIR IS ACTUALLY A
FAIRLY STRONG TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THIS JET FROM THE EASTERN
INDIAN OCEAN. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LANDFALL ON THE
BAY OF BENGAL NORTH COAST A FEW DAYS AGO) ARE WRAPPED UP IN A STRONG
LOW CURRENTLY OVER JAPAN. WHAT IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON THE MODELS
IS YET TO BE SEEN...BUT FORECASTS BEYOND ABOUT DAY 4 ARE LIKELY
SUSPECT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITIES HAVE ELICITED A RED FLAG
WARNING OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. HUMIDITIES WILL EASILY DROP TO
BELOW 30 PERCENT...BUT WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO
REACH. BUT WITH 27 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET IN THE MCGRATH SOUNDING FELT
THE PROBABILITY WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE WARNING. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PORTION
OF THE GULF LOW SPLITS FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD
TO THE AKPEN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF LOW WILL STAY NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST PUSHES
WESTWARD. A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR KODIAK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RETROGRADING LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA ON THE WEEKEND.
THE NORTHERN ALASKA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKNESS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS AN UPPER LOW FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN
SLIDES SOUTH. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN ALASKA IN A COL AND THUS NOT
UNDER THE RIDGE OR TROUGH...THE RESULT BEING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
BUT PEPPERED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER A
WEAK LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL) PROVIDING
ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.

THE PATTERN CHANGE DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETE BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE CONNECTING WITH A RIDGE OFF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS. THIS PROJECTS NICELY ONTO A POSITIVE EP-NP (EAST PACIFIC
/ NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN). THIS PATTERN WOULD INDICATE CONDITIONS
WARMER AND DRYER THAN NORMAL OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 138.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 151.

LUDWIG MAY 07