Gale Warning 475, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 172324
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK WILL DISSIPATE THU NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH SAT. A 1001 MB
LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF KISKA WILL MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTH OF ADAK AT 998 MB
FRI MORNING AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT.
$$

PKZ150-181400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-181400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-181400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-181400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-181400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-181400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-181400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-181400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-181400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-181400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-181400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-181400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT THU MAY 17 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED MAY 16 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THIS
FOLLOWS THE TREND FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN WHICH THE NAM HAS
JUST NOT BEEN ABLE TO GRASP FEATURES VERY WELL...EVEN IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM. THE UKMET AND EVEN OLDER VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AT LEAST OUT TO 60 HOURS. AFTER
60 HOURS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A LOW THAT WILL BE NEAR 50 NORTH
LATITUDE 140 WEST LONGITUDE...THOUGH THE OVER ALL PATTERN IN THE
VICINITY OF ALASKA IS WELL AGREED UPON THROUGH AT LEAST 84 HOURS BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS...BUT SEE DISCLAIMER IN THE ANALYSIS SECTION. THE
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH ALMOST DAY 10...WITH A
SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT PATTERN CHANGE AROUND DAY 5 THAT IS DISCUSSED
IN THE EXTENDED SECTION BELOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHARP 500 MB EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA AND A DEEP UPPER LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE BERING SEA. THE MAIN JET STREAM IS RUNNING ALONG 40 DEGREES
NORTH...THEN SWINGING NORTHEAST TO NEAR SEATTLE. THEIR IS ACTUALLY A
FAIRLY STRONG TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THIS JET FROM THE EASTERN
INDIAN OCEAN. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LANDFALL ON THE
BAY OF BENGAL NORTH COAST A FEW DAYS AGO) ARE WRAPPED UP IN A STRONG
LOW CURRENTLY OVER JAPAN. WHAT IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON THE MODELS
IS YET TO BE SEEN...BUT FORECASTS BEYOND ABOUT DAY 4 ARE LIKELY
SUSPECT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITIES HAVE ELICITED A RED FLAG
WARNING OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. HUMIDITIES WILL EASILY DROP TO
BELOW 30 PERCENT...BUT WINDS OF 25 MPH WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO
REACH. BUT WITH 27 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET IN THE MCGRATH SOUNDING FELT
THE PROBABILITY WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE WARNING. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PORTION
OF THE GULF LOW SPLITS FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD
TO THE AKPEN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF LOW WILL STAY NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST PUSHES
WESTWARD. A DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR KODIAK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RETROGRADING LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA ON THE WEEKEND.
THE NORTHERN ALASKA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKNESS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS AN UPPER LOW FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN
SLIDES SOUTH. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN ALASKA IN A COL AND THUS NOT
UNDER THE RIDGE OR TROUGH...THE RESULT BEING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
BUT PEPPERED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER A
WEAK LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL) PROVIDING
ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.

THE PATTERN CHANGE DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETE BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE CONNECTING WITH A RIDGE OFF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS. THIS PROJECTS NICELY ONTO A POSITIVE EP-NP (EAST PACIFIC
/ NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN). THIS PATTERN WOULD INDICATE CONDITIONS
WARMER AND DRYER THAN NORMAL OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 138.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 151.

LUDWIG MAY 07