Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY STABLE PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. A LONG
WAVE (NEARLY FULL LATITUDE) RIDGE HAS SET UP ALONG ABOUT 140W
LONGITUDE. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND NORTHWEST
PACIFIC IS STEERING THE POLAR JET THAT TRAVELS OFF OF ASIA AT AROUND
40N LATITUDE THEN TAKES A TURN NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE DATE LINE. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET SURGES NORTHEASTWARD AND MEETS THE POLAR JET NEAR
KODIAK...THOUGH CONSOLIDATION IS MINIMAL WITH THE WARM AND COLD AIR
SOMEWHAT SEPARATED. THIS IS PUNCHING A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
ALASKA. THIS IS ONE OF THE PREFERRED MODES DURING EL NINO
YEARS...THOUGH ONE WOULD EXPECT THE JET TO PERIODICALLY UNDERCUT THE
EAST PACIFIC RIDGE.

COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY WARMED CONSIDERABLY...AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MAINLAND ALASKA WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM TRACK AS THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONG...BUT A FEW
WILL BRIEFLY CONSOLIDATE THE COLD AND WARM AIR. ONE OF THESE
STRONGER SYSTEMS WILL SPIN UP SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS SATURDAY...AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREA MONDAY...BEFORE BREAKING APART EARLY TUESDAY.

THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS...
AND MOST LIKELY A LOT LONGER. THIS WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
(ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS).

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JAN 07