Gale Warning 87, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 111341 RRA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WEAKENS TO 985 MB AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A 990 MB LOW NEAR SAINT
GEORGE ISLAND THIS MORNING WEAKENS TO 994 MB TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTH TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS 
THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY THU NIGHT AND FRI. 

$$

PKZ150-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-120300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-120300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-120300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT.  
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-120300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-120300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-120300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 120023
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 974 MB LOW 250 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN TO 988 MB SAT. A 998 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THU
NIGHT WILL MOVE TO CHIGNIK FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE SAT. ON SAT A 979 MB LOW WILL BE 370 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR.
$$

PKZ150-121500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-121500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
$$

PKZ160-121500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.

.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
$$

PKZ165-121500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ180-121500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT.
$$

PKZ170-121500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-121500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ172-121500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-121500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-121500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

PKZ185-121500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
$$

PKZ179-121500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOW PRESENT OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA/YUKON BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA NEAR THE COMMANDER ISLANDS. MUCH WARMER AIR IS PRESENT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION IN BETWEEN...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS WEATHER
SYSTEMS IN FAST MOVING FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
WEEK.

...MODELS...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON MAJOR FEATURES. WHERE MINOR DIFFERENCES
EXIST...WE ARE SIDING WITH GFS...IN PARTICULAR WITH A SHORTWAVE
AROUND KODIAK ISLAND ON SATURDAY...WHICH THE GFS HAS WEAKER AND
FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM/WRF. MODELS WILL MOST LIKELY BE SLOW IN
PICKING UP THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWS IN THIS PATTERN...AS IS THE CASE
THIS MORNING WITH A SMALL LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS.

...SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
THE FIRST IN AN UPCOMING PARADE OF SYSTEMS HAS ARRIVED OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS ON
THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...STRONG IN AREAS...AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR ANCHORAGE...DESPITE THE FAVORABLE UP INLET
SOUTHWEST FLOW...DOWNSLOPE AND DRYING IS OCCURRING BECAUSE OF THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS
CONCENTRATED FROM THE FAR WEST EDGE OF THE KENAI TO THE WEST SIDE OF
COOK INLET...AND NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS HELPING TO DOWNSLOPE OUT THE EASTERN KENAI FROM
SEWARD UP TO WHITTIER AND PORTAGE WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW IN THOSE
AREAS. SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTIONS AT VARIOUS LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE AS TO WHO EXACTLY GETS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN THIS SUPER MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GENERALLY SPEAKING...IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY TO GET SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT WEEK BECAUSE THE WINDS GENERALLY STAY EAST OF DUE
SOUTH AT LEAST AT SOME LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH MEANS
DOWNSLOPING MOST OF THE TIME. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE BRIEF PERIODS ON
THE TAIL END OF SHORTWAVES WHERE THE FLOW BECOMES JUST WESTERLY
ENOUGH FOR ANCHORAGE TO GET SNOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE WESTERN
SIDE OF COOK INLET UP INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL GET HAMMERED IN
THIS PATTERN. THE EASTERN KENAI OVER TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL
ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE TIME. TIMING OF THE
FREQUENT SYSTEMS IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE DIFFICULT. IN THE SHORT
TIME...EXPECT LITTLE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER FAVORED AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A BIT OF A HEAVIER SHOT OF PRECIP FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.

NOW ONTO THE CHALLENGE OF TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN VS SNOW WILL BE A CHALLENGE.
MODELS HAVE UNDERDONE THE DRAMATIC TRANSITION TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH RAIN EVEN MIXING IN THIS MORNING AS FAR NORTH AS
KACHEMAK BAY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW
THROUGH FRIDAY DAY NORTHEAST OF KACHEMAK BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
UPCOMING FRONTS...INCLUDING THE FRONT TO HIT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN...MEANING A CHANCE
OF RAIN MIXING IN FROM THE KENAI OVER TO CORDOVA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA FORECAST...
THROUGH SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SMALL LOWS...MANY LIKELY NOT TO BE
PICKED UP BY MODELS...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS...BRINGING SHOTS OF RAIN AND SNOW. A STEADIER STREAM OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN AIMED AT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SNOW WITH RAIN SNOW MIXED AROUND
BRISTOL BAY. AFTER SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES...THE CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR SOME STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AS A STRONG
JET STREAM INCHES NORTH CLOSER TO THE CHAIN AND SOME COLDER AIR
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE BERING. COLDER AIR MAY ALSO MOVE BACK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNINGS 120 130 132 150 176 185 350.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 140.

FOISY JAN 07