Small Craft Advisory 414, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY IN THE SHORT TERM AND GFS
WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AGAIN TODAY SIMPLY FOR CONSISTENCY.  IN THE
LONG TERM THE SOLUTIONS VEERED A BIT MORE...ESP AROUND THE 96 HR
TIMEFRAME. GFS DIFFERED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN IN THE
BERING AROUND THIS TIME BY BUILDING THE RIDGE AND KEEPING ALL LOWS TO
THE WEST...DECIDED TO NUDGE TOWARD THE NEW GFS RUN IN THE EAST BUT
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE WEST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OVER THE BERING.  WITH
THIS CHANGE THE FLOW OVER THE STATE HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL IN NATURE
AND WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT WEST AND
CONSEQUENTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT IN THE EAST SURFACE HEATING
WILL CONTINUE AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE EAST...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WHERE MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN STILL LINGERS THIS MORNING.  AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES THINGS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE FROM THE EAST.  THIS SHOULD KICK OFF
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE.

IN THE WEST...STABILITY HAS INCREASED AND TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER SO
PRECIP WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY AND
TOMORROW. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE KUSKOWKIM VALLEY BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASED STABILITY.  IN THE
ALEUTIANS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SAME PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE RIDGE IN THE
BERING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BUT AS IT FLATTENS OUT SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN AND BRING SHOWERY ACTIVITY
WITH THEM.  BY THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AGAIN AND THIS WILL CAUSE MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE MAINLAND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF MAY 07