Small Craft Advisory 412, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 070052 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
445 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

UPDATED ZONES 130 AND 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1010 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND SUN NIGHT AND MOVE
TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1014 MB TUE
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-071400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-071400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-071400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-071400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 


$$

PKZ130-071400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
445 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-071400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-071400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4  FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-071400-
KACHEMAK BAY
445 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 070355 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
755 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

UPDATED ZONES 129 138 AND 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1010 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND SUN NIGHT AND MOVE
TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1014 MB TUE
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-071400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-071400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-071400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-071400-
PASSAGE CANAL
755 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 


$$

PKZ130-071400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
445 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-071400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
755 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-071400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
755 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4  FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-071400-
KACHEMAK BAY
445 PM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN MAY 6 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY IN THE SHORT TERM AND GFS
WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AGAIN TODAY SIMPLY FOR CONSISTENCY.  IN THE
LONG TERM THE SOLUTIONS VEERED A BIT MORE...ESP AROUND THE 96 HR
TIMEFRAME. GFS DIFFERED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN IN THE
BERING AROUND THIS TIME BY BUILDING THE RIDGE AND KEEPING ALL LOWS TO
THE WEST...DECIDED TO NUDGE TOWARD THE NEW GFS RUN IN THE EAST BUT
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE WEST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OVER THE BERING.  WITH
THIS CHANGE THE FLOW OVER THE STATE HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL IN NATURE
AND WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT WEST AND
CONSEQUENTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT IN THE EAST SURFACE HEATING
WILL CONTINUE AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE EAST...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WHERE MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN STILL LINGERS THIS MORNING.  AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES THINGS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE FROM THE EAST.  THIS SHOULD KICK OFF
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE.

IN THE WEST...STABILITY HAS INCREASED AND TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER SO
PRECIP WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY AND
TOMORROW. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE KUSKOWKIM VALLEY BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASED STABILITY.  IN THE
ALEUTIANS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SAME PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE RIDGE IN THE
BERING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BUT AS IT FLATTENS OUT SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN AND BRING SHOWERY ACTIVITY
WITH THEM.  BY THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AGAIN AND THIS WILL CAUSE MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE MAINLAND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF MAY 07