Small Craft Advisory 38, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...NAM/GFS MODEL MSLP LOOK QUITE REASONABLE FOR LOW IN THE
BERING SEA.  GFS TENDS TO ELONGATE CENTER A BIT MORE AND DEVELOPS A
SECONDARY LOW IN THE ST MATTHEW REGION ON THURSDAY...THIS SEEMS TO BE
A REASONABLE SOLUTION.  THE GFS FORMS A LOW  SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THIS
FEATURE AT ALL. IN ADDITION THE GFS PRODUCES A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH THE NAM ONCE AGAIN DOES NOT
REPRODUCE. AS A RESULT HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN GFS IN THE LONG RANGE.

WEST...STRONG LOW WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAJOR WARM-UP IN STORE FOR BRISTOL BAY BUT TEMPS SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THIS FRONT...HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
FURTHER TO THE WEST. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONT
STRONGEST OVER THE AK PEN.

EAST...CURRENT RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  FRONT TO MOVE OVER KODIAK MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT ONCE AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON
TEMPS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRONT REACHES NORTH GULF COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
FORCING WITH THIS FRONT BUT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700
MB.  THIS MEANS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN ON THE KENAI PEN. AND NORTHERN COOK INLET.
CONSIDERABLE WARMING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS..REACHING SEA-LEVEL THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECTING
TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 161
         HIGH WIND WARNING 185
MARINE...GALE 138, 150, 175, 176, 185, 179
         STORM 155, 160, 165, 180, 170, 171, 172
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120, 121, 129, 130, 132, 138, 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 07