Small Craft Advisory 37, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 100239 CCB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
540 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

CORRECTED ZONE 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF ON THURSDAY. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.

.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUST 35 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...WIND DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 
3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AST TUE JAN 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
BIG PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD WETTER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS UNDERWAY.
THE TRANSITION LINE IS A STRONG FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST...BRINGING WITH IT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THIS NEW PATTERN WILL STICK AROUND FOR AT LEAST A WEEK.

...MODELS...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MAJOR FEATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CERTAINLY SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
BEYOND...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OF WARM
AND WET. THE LARGEST MODEL CONCERN IS JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET
FROM BRISTOL BAY OVER TO THE GULF COAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
ONWARD...AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SNOW LINE CAN MAKE IT.

...SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
COLD OFFSHORE FLOW IS PRESENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MANY
AREAS. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE PRESENT FROM SOME FREEZING
FOG AND ICE FOG. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHTENING UP TODAY OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE PANHANDLE...EXPECT THESE AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AROUND...WITH THE
SUN LIKELY VISIBLE TODAY EVEN IN AREAS WHICH HAVE SOME FOG. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MENTIONED ABOVE IS LEADING TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE USUAL CHANNELED AREAS. THIS HAS LED TO SOME DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS IN PLACES SUCH AS BROAD PASS AND THOMPSON PASS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE WINDS IN
CHANNELED TERRAIN TO DIE DOWN. A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE BIG CHANGE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MOIST WEATHER
SYSTEMS TO SOUTHCENTRAL. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...RAIN VS SNOW WILL BE
A CHALLENGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. FOR KODIAK...EXPECT PRECIP TO
START OUT AS SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE KENAI
PENINSULA TO CORDOVA...PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THEN THINGS GET MORE CHALLENGING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD. THE CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN FALLING ON TOP OF
THE SNOWPACK IN THESE AREAS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FROM ANCHORAGE NORTH...PRECIP SHOULD FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW.
DOWNSLOPE WILL PROBABLY PLAY A ROLE FOR ANCHORAGE AND PALMER TO KEEP
SNOW FROM BEING HEAVY...BUT THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF GETTING A LOT OF SNOW. IT WILL NOT BEING SNOWING OR
RAINING QUITE THE WHOLE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT SYSTEMS
WILL CERTAINLY BE MOVING THROUGH QUITE FREQUENTLY IN THIS PATTERN.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
THE STRONG FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL BEGIN TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE COAST WEST OF BETHEL BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. THUS...A BLIZZARD WARNING IS
BEING ISSUED WITH THIS MORNING PACKAGE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FROM
HOOPER BAY TO CAPE NEWENHAM. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH DRAMATICALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION...AND STRONG WINDS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO MCGRATH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TO CHANGE
PRECIP OVER TO RAIN FOR SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PERSISTENT SHORTWAVES IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...WITH FREQUENT
BOUTS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN AROUND BRISTOL BAY.

...BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN FORECAST...
A STRONG WARM FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS TODAY HAS
TURNED THE PRECIP MOSTLY OVER TO RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. OUT TOWARD
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AND STRONGEST WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF AS THE FRONT HAS
MOVED EAST...AREAS OF RAIN PERSIST. WITH A STRONG LOW ANCHORED OFF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT UNSTABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PERSISTENT RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES...OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNINGS 131 155 161.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 185.
MARINE...STORM WARNINGS 155 160 165 170 171 172 180 410.
         GALE WARNINGS 120 121 129 130 138 150 175 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS 120 121 125 129 130 132 138
         140 350.

FOISY JAN 07