Small Craft Advisory 351, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GFS MODEL HAS INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM, SO THERE IS A
HIGHER LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN IT. IN GENERAL, THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMF THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 300
MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WITH A WELL DEVELOPED WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD, JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE THE LEFTOVERS OF THE WEATHER
FRONT THAT DISSIPATED YESTERDAY.

IN THE UPPER UPPER LEVELS, THE 500 MB LOW IS STACKED OVER THE
SURFACE CENTER SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND HAS BEEN MOVING
EAST IN THE TROUGH OF THE JET STREAM. ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA HAD BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 1010 MB 240 MILES WEST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT
AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
LOWER PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION OF THE STATE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN STORM CENTER PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

BERING SEA...
THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BERING MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY. A
STRENGTHENING LOW 500 MILES SOUTH OF ATKA MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD
TO THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 132, 155, 170, 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM APR 07