Small Craft Advisory 313, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 031103
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 994 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WILL WEAKEN TO 997 MB AROUND
400 NM SOUTH OF ATKA TUE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR 47N 176W
WED. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS 
THE BERING SEA THROUGH THU. 

$$

PKZ150-040200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-040200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-040200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-040200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-040200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-040200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-040200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-040200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE 
WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-040200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE APR 3 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
140 PM ADT MON APR 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER JET RIDING
EASTWARD ALONG 40N...AMPLIFYING THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH.
MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST
ONE AT 48N 168W IS DEEPENING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. HOWEVER...THE JET WILL MOVE ON BY THIS EVENING AND A NEW LOW
WILL FORM DOWNSTREAM. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATKA
TRACKING WESTWARD ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE EAST-WEST TROUGH.
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND WINDS LIE ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTH PACIFIC.
DUTCH HARBOR IS REPORTING ALL SNOW. SINCE THE FRONT IS OCCLUDING
LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE NOT GOING TO GET ANY WARMER. SO IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO RAIN AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. SNOW
MAY MIX WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OR JUST REMAIN ALL SNOW. QUIKSCAT
SHOWS A BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS CENTERED ON THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NO OBS TO CONFIRM THIS...BUT STORM FORCE GUSTS SEEM
POSSIBLE THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN BERING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AKPENN TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
AND MOVING NORTHWARD. STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GULF WITH HIGHER CLOUDS SPREADING OVER BRISTOL BAY AND TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL. SO FAR THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF PRECIP...BUT WE DO EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AS THIS SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. YET ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST ALASKA
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN BERING. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THIS...HAS SEEN SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP.

MODEL DISCUSSION...FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
MODELS DEPICT SHORT-WAVE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND MAKING IT A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH BEFORE ROTATING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SO
FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED TO BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE MID TO LONG
TERM. HOWEVER...THE STORM TRACK IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ANCHORAGE
AOR AND DIFFERENCES AWAY FROM THE ACTUAL STORMS ARE MINIMAL...SO
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS LOOK SOLID.

FORECAST...AS UPPER JET CONTINUES TO DRIVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC ONE VERY LARGE LOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS SO PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT-WAVE SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL MERGE WITH THE ONE DROPPING DOWN OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BERING AS A CLOSED LOW
THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THESE
FEATURES...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...BECAUSE MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC
LIFT WILL BE OVER THE BERING. AS WE HEAD TO LATE IN THE WEEK
SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ANCHOR
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF BRINGING WIND AND PRECIP TO COASTAL
REGIONS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
THAT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. BY THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN
LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A BETTER SHOT OF PRECIP ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 132 170 171 172 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 07