Small Craft Advisory 31, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
930 PM AST SUN JAN 7 2007

RETRANSMISSION

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH I CONTINUE TO PREFER THE
NAM MODEL OVER THE EAST DOMAIN BECAUSE IT HANDLES THE SMALLER
FEATURES BETTER THAN THE GFS.

UPPER AIR...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE COOK INLET WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AN MOVE
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN ALASKA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WITH BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT.

A STRONG NORTHERLY JET ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVE INTO
WESTERN ALASKA MONDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS JET WILL AMPLIFY THE SURFACE
WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE CHANNELED TERRAIN OVER ALONG THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS.

NEAR SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR YAKUTAT TONIGHT.
THE OTHER LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND WEAKEN OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TO NIGHT THEN DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
SOUND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST. BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WINDIER
AREAS AND CAUSE A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.

WEST DOMAIN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING TONIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS TONIGHT AND BECOME SHOWERS AS
IT WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST MONDAY.

A STRONG STORM NEAR THE KURIL ISLANDS WILL MOVE TO 300 MILES WEST OF
ATTU TUESDAY. THE STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA MONDAY AND INTO THE EAST BERING SEA TUESDAY.

STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR
THE CENTER AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS STILL LOOK GOOD.

PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN AS SNOW BUT WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DUE TO THE WARM AIR MOVING UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
MARINE...STORM 172 175 176
         GALE 130 132 170 171 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141
                              150 155 160 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NAN 07