Gale Warning 78, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 090103 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

CORRECTED ZONE 129 AND 130

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1013 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH
OF JUNEAU BY LATE TUE MORNING AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. ON WED
AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

$$

PKZ120-091500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER 
RIVER DELTA. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-091500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-091500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-091500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SA...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-091500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-091500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-091500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-091500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.

.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ141-091500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5S FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST MON JAN 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE UNFOLDING THIS WEEK. AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE OF
TROPICAL-EXTRA TROPICAL INTERACTION. AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
(THE MJO OR MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION) THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE INDIAN
OCEAN FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TAPPING THIS MOISTURE IS
ALSO MOVING EAST AND FORCING A DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
AND WESTERN BERING SEA AS THE POLAR JET COMBINES WITH IT NEAR JAPAN.
THIS CONSOLIDATED JET IS PUSHING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS...AND BY LATER THIS WEEK INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...THE PESKY LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
FINALLY BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
TO CREATE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN SOME AREAS INTO TUESDAY (SEE
APPROPRIATE ADVISORIES FOR MORE INFO ON THIS). THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE MAINLAND ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MOST OF THE STATE WILL
TRANSITION TO THE WARM (WEST) SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE PATTERN CHANGE MENTIONED ABOVE REACHES ITS FINAL
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK
TO ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

LOOKING OUT TOWARD NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION
WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND WESTERN BERING SEA.
THIS WILL KEEP ALASKA IN RATHER MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 155.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 155 170 172.
         GALE WARNING 150 160 165 170 171 175 176 179 180 185.
      HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 120 121 129 130 132 138 150 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JAN 07