Small Craft Advisory 264, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN MAR 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL WITH SOME MODIFICATION WILL BE USED FOR
AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

UPPER AIR...NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR EARLIER DISCUSSIONS. UPPER CENTER
OVER THE GULF SHOULD START TO SHIFT EAST AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE GULF ON TUE. SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN AK PEN TUE THEN TO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY WED MORNING.
LOW CENTER OVER THE POLE TODAY MOVES TO OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE WED
NIGHT AND SETS UP SW FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND.

SURFACE
970S STORM CENTER APPROACHING THE WEST/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF ADAK TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT
WEST/SW MON. HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE
WEST ALEUTIANS WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS. WEAK
TRIPLE POINT FORMS SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TUE MORNING...BUT NOT LIKELY
TO DO MUCH AS NEXT MAJOR LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SW TRAILING COLD
FRONT.

THE NORTH PACIFIC WEST OF 160W IS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WILL THE SPAWNING
GROUND FOR NEXT MAJOR LOW CENTER TO IMPACT THE AK PEN AND THE GULF.
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THIS REGION AND SETUP OF STRONG W-SW JET
LIKELY TO GENERATE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CENTER ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CENTER IS FORECAST MOVE TO SOUTH THE
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND DROP INTO THE 960S BY TUE AFTERNOON. CENTER
IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WED AND HOLD IN
THE 960S. GFS HAS SHOWN A SHIFT TO A MORE WEST TRACK ON 12Z RUN. FEEL
AT THIS POINT THE SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL NUDGE CURRENT
GRIDS/FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. IF ALL PANS OUT...THEN SHOULD
SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND WARMING
FOR THE GULF AND SURROUNDING AREAS EARLY BY MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE MIXED OVER THE GULF...SNOW WILL BE THE
GENERAL RULE FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

SHORT TERM...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE GULF AS
LOW COMPLEX WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHWEST MAINLAND LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DRY WITH SOME MOISTURE INTRUSION INTO BRISTOL BAY TUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 191.
MARINE...GALE 172. STORM 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 07