Small Craft Advisory 263, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 192301
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON MAR 19 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE TO KODIAK ISLAND TUE MORNING THEN TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING. A 962 MB LOW MOVES WITHIN 400 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK TUE AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENS TO 968 MB 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF KODIAK WED MORNING THEN INLAND WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-201400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT MON MAR 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING 
TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAR 19 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-201400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT MON MAR 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-201400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT MON MAR 19 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-201400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAR 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT MON MAR 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT MON MAR 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAR 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ141-201400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAR 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN MAR 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL WITH SOME MODIFICATION WILL BE USED FOR
AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

UPPER AIR...NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR EARLIER DISCUSSIONS. UPPER CENTER
OVER THE GULF SHOULD START TO SHIFT EAST AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE GULF ON TUE. SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN AK PEN TUE THEN TO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY WED MORNING.
LOW CENTER OVER THE POLE TODAY MOVES TO OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE WED
NIGHT AND SETS UP SW FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND.

SURFACE
970S STORM CENTER APPROACHING THE WEST/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF ADAK TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT
WEST/SW MON. HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE
WEST ALEUTIANS WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS. WEAK
TRIPLE POINT FORMS SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TUE MORNING...BUT NOT LIKELY
TO DO MUCH AS NEXT MAJOR LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SW TRAILING COLD
FRONT.

THE NORTH PACIFIC WEST OF 160W IS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WILL THE SPAWNING
GROUND FOR NEXT MAJOR LOW CENTER TO IMPACT THE AK PEN AND THE GULF.
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THIS REGION AND SETUP OF STRONG W-SW JET
LIKELY TO GENERATE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CENTER ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CENTER IS FORECAST MOVE TO SOUTH THE
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND DROP INTO THE 960S BY TUE AFTERNOON. CENTER
IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WED AND HOLD IN
THE 960S. GFS HAS SHOWN A SHIFT TO A MORE WEST TRACK ON 12Z RUN. FEEL
AT THIS POINT THE SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL NUDGE CURRENT
GRIDS/FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. IF ALL PANS OUT...THEN SHOULD
SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND WARMING
FOR THE GULF AND SURROUNDING AREAS EARLY BY MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE MIXED OVER THE GULF...SNOW WILL BE THE
GENERAL RULE FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

SHORT TERM...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE GULF AS
LOW COMPLEX WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHWEST MAINLAND LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DRY WITH SOME MOISTURE INTRUSION INTO BRISTOL BAY TUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 191.
MARINE...GALE 172. STORM 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 07