Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE NAM APPEARS TO
HANDLE THE FEATURES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BETTER THAN THE GFS MODEL.
IT EVEN PICKS UP THE LEESIDE LOW IN COOK INLET.

UPPER AIR...
THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
COOK INLET SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MONDAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WILL BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH
MONDAY. THE JET STREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY.

NEAR SURFACE.
EAST DOMAIN...
A WEAK 1000 MB LOW OVER THE OUTER WATERS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN WILL SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COOK INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION COMING OUT OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. GUSTY WEST WINDS COMING OUT OF CHANNELED TERRAIN
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL GET STRONGER OVER THE COOK INLET,
SUSITNA VALLEY AND KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY.

WEST DOMAIN...
A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING BY LATE SUNDAY AND BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST MONDAY.

AN INTENSE LOW JUST EAST OF JAPAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO ABOUT 500
MILES WEST OF SHEMYA AND STRENGTHEN TO 954 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY.
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY. THERE ALSO COULD BE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150
                              160 165 179 185
         STORM 175 176
         GALE 130 138 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 07