Storm Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 070931 AAE
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1230 PM AST SUN JAN 7 2007

UPDATED ZONES 140 AND 141.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 40 NM NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING THEN MOVE TO 160 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT AND WEAKEN TO 1011 MB MON AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW 540 NM
SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR KETCHIKAN SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-071500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
515 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS WEST OF CAPE HINCHINBROOK.
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS WEST OF CAPE HINCHINBROOK. 
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 9 FT. 
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 3 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-071500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
515 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-071500-
PASSAGE CANAL
515 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-071500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1030 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW WIND 35 KT NORTHWEST OF THE
BARRENS. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT SEAS 16 FT NORTHWEST OF THE BARRENS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT W WIND 35 KT NORTHWEST 
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
655 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-071500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-071500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1230 AM AST SUN JAN 7 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT W WIND 35 KT S OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.

$$

PKZ141-071500-
KACHEMAK BAY
1230 AM AST SUN JAN 7 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT JAN 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE NAM APPEARS TO
HANDLE THE FEATURES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BETTER THAN THE GFS MODEL.
IT EVEN PICKS UP THE LEESIDE LOW IN COOK INLET.

UPPER AIR...
THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
COOK INLET SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MONDAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WILL BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH
MONDAY. THE JET STREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY.

NEAR SURFACE.
EAST DOMAIN...
A WEAK 1000 MB LOW OVER THE OUTER WATERS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN WILL SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COOK INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION COMING OUT OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. GUSTY WEST WINDS COMING OUT OF CHANNELED TERRAIN
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL GET STRONGER OVER THE COOK INLET,
SUSITNA VALLEY AND KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY.

WEST DOMAIN...
A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING BY LATE SUNDAY AND BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST MONDAY.

AN INTENSE LOW JUST EAST OF JAPAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO ABOUT 500
MILES WEST OF SHEMYA AND STRENGTHEN TO 954 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY.
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY. THERE ALSO COULD BE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150
                              160 165 179 185
         STORM 175 176
         GALE 130 138 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 07