Small Craft Advisory 203, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON FEB 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING/WESTERN
ALASKA COAST.

A LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS IT
TRIES WITH MINIMAL SUCCESS TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
BERING. A WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
REACHING THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN SHEERS APART AS THE
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN GETS THRUST
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA ONCE AGAIN INCREASING
GAP WINDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THERE IS NOW A BIT MORE CONSENSUS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF
PUSHING THE BERING RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN MAINLAND BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD SIGNAL A BRIEF WARM-UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT I WOULDNT PUT TOO MUCH STOCK INTO ANY PROLONGED
WARM-UPS AS THIS STAGNANT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WONT ALLOW THAT TO
PERSIST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 185 120 121 129 130 132.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185 120 121 125 129 130 138 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA FEB 07