Small Craft Advisory 124, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI FEB 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
A WIDE REACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS
MORNING IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. A
WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SIBERIA
LATE TONIGHT...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL SET UP FOR THE MAINLAND WITH
COOLER...BUT NOT COLD...OFFSHORE FLOW AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH
FEWER CLOUDS. THE PATTERN WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE SAME FOR THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...THE NEXT ALREADY APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING.

...MODELS...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
HAVE CHANGED PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE SHORT TERM FOR THE EAST.
FOR TODAY...ALL MODELS ARE NOW BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
DRIER WEATHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR KODIAK UP TO SOUTHCENTRAL
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS THIS CHANGE
IN THINKING. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL
FOR VALDEZ TO CORDOVA AND THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
FRONT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND GETTING SHEARED APART RATHER
QUICKLY...AND ALTHOUGH VALDEZ AND CORDOVA WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT.

...MAINLAND ALASKA FORECAST...
A WEATHER FRONT ORIENTED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY IS BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION AND
MOSTLY WIND...INCLUDING A GUST TO 87 MPH IN THE EVENING ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THE KENAI MOUNTAINS ARE GOBBLING UP
NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION AND KEEPING MOST OF THE WESTERN
KENAI UP TO THE MAT VALLEY DRY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL
BE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE AK
RANGE...AND ALSO ALONG THE WEST COAST WEST OF BETHEL CLOSER TO THE
LOW OVER THE BERING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STICK AROUND TONIGHT...BUT
FEWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF
BUILDS IN FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AS DISCUSSED IN THE
MODEL DISCUSSION. VERY QUIET WEATHER AND OFFSHORE FLOW TO SET UP FOR
THE MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. ABOUT THE ONLY PLACE TO POSSIBLY SEE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND AS SYSTEMS GRAZE THE AREA IN
EASTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE
RECENT BALMY TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
STRENGTH OF VALLEY INVERSIONS AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND ALSO THE LOCALIZED GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN.

...BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN FORECAST...
THIS REGION WILL SEE THE ACTION FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME STRONG
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. A WEAKENING LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS TODAY WILL
MOVE INTO SIBERIA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...A NEW LOW IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY. THIS LOW OR SOME COMPLEX
OF LOWS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL
BERING BEGINNING IN EARNEST LATE TODAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE LOW COMES TO A CRAWL OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW...ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 121.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 187.
MARINE...STORM WARNINGS 170 172 176 410.
         GALE WARNINGS 150 155 160 165 171 175 179 180.

FOISY FEB 07