Small Craft Advisory 121, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU FEB 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS WITHIN REASON IN SHORT TERM. GFS WILL
BE USED IN GENERAL IN MEDIUM RANGE.

300 MB...REAL PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH MON NIGHT. RIDGE AXIS ALONG 140W
SHIFTS EAST TO OVER CANADA FRI/SAT AS LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK PEN
MOVES INTO EASTERN RUSSIA. RIDGE IS REESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF AND
MAINLAND SAT NIGHT/SUN AS NEXT CENTER SPINS UP NEAR THE ALEUTIANS.

.SYNOPSIS...966 MB CENTER SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES NORTH OF THE
DUTCH FRI MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO WEST OF ST. MATTHEW ISLAND EARLY
SAT MORNING. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...SW
AK...AND STRETCHES SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT.
MAINLAND/GULF PORTION OF FRONT WEAKENS AND PUSHES N/E. RIDGE IS
REESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF/CENTRAL MAINLAND FRI NIGHT/SUN. NEXT
STORM CENTER MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IN THE 960S SAT
AFTERNOON.

.EAST...FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING UP TOWARD KODIAK/WESTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON LIKELY TO BRING FAIR RAINS ON ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP AND STRONG SE FLOW AHEAD OF
MOISTURE FEED WITH FRONT LIKELY WILL WEAKEN AS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG BOUNDARY SOUTH OF 40 N FRI. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
VALUES LIKELY E/SE EXPOSURES IN THE GULF...BUT VALUES SHOULD NOT BE
ABNORMALLY HIGH. FRONTAL TROUGH LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WARNING
LEVELS POSSIBLE OVER ZONE 101 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
FRI. SOME DRYING OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND SAT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FRI EVE THROUGH SAT. MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG WITH BREAKS IN
CLOUDS.

.WEST...STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE AK PEN AND PORTIONS OF SW AK WILL
CONTINUE IN ADVANCE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI AS STORM CENTER MOVES TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS AND
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. RAIN AND SNOW WITH
AND AHEAD OF FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO SHOWERS FRI. COOLING INTO SW
AK LIKELY TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. NEXT CENTER TO IMPACT ALEUTIANS
LIKELY TO BRING STORMS AND GALES TO ALEUTIANS/EASTERN BERING SEA FRI
NIGHT AND SAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 101 AND 161.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 141 155 160 165 170 172 176 180 .
         STORM 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 07