Small Craft Advisory 116, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE JAN 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM MODEL IS PREFERRED OVER THE GFS MODEL THIS MORNING. THE GFS
IS MOVING THE NEXT LOW OUT CENTRAL PACIFIC A LITTLE TOO FAST AND
KEEPS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OF THE NAM POSITION. NAM IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH UKMET AND NOGAPS THAN GFS.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA, BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON TERRITORY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO SIBERIA WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE
300 MB JET. STRONG SOUTH FLOW INTO MAINLAND ALASKA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL.

AT SURFACE...
EAST SIDE...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MORE
RAIN AND WIND WILL MOVE BACK INTO KODIAK TONIGHT AND MAY SPREAD INTO
THE LOWER INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL GUST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEST SIDE...
A SERIES OF LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 70 TO 90 MPH OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND WEAKENS.

THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE LAST ONE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 155 161 AND 181.
         FLOOD WARNING FOR ZONE 121.
MARINE...STORM 165 180
         GALE 130 132 138 150 155 160 170 171 172 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 07