Small Craft Advisory 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BUT
THE MODELS DIVERGE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE OUT OF
SYNC WITH THE OTHER MODELS SO GFS HAS THE BETTER SOLUTION.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH IT WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS WEAK UPPER
LOWS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...
IN THE EAST...
MOSTLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS COVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE COPPER RIVER AND PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY MIDDAY BUT WILL
REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT.

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND
LATE THURSDAY AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER KODIAK
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO KENAI PENINSULA AND PRICE WILLIAM SOUND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GULF INTO THE GULF AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE WEST...
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST
INTO SIBERIA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A DEVELOPING STORM WEST OF JAPAN TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 580 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ATTU FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING
EAST ALONG 50N LATITUDE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE IN THE THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 150
         GALE 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 07