Small Craft Advisory 1004, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS/NAM IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MON. GFS LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. SO WILL LEAN WITH GFS
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.WEST...PARENT LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND MOVES TO OVER EASTERN RUSSIA SAT. 977 MB CENTER MOVED INTO
THE BERING AS AS IT CROSSED UNALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS CENTER WILL
CONTINUE NW TRACK TO OVER SE RUSSIA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA/SW AK COASTAL ZONES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. EXPECT WIND WARNING CONDITIONS TO END BY 4
PM THIS AFTERNOON ZONE 181 AND BY MIDNIGHT OVER ZONES 155 AND 161.
HOWEVER...STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING FOR
ZONES 155 AND 161. FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/AK PEN
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SW AS OFFSHORE FLOW SETUP UP OVER THE SW MAINLAND.
UPPER BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP ALOFT THIS WEEKEND...THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO COLD...DRY...AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS INTO MON. MODEL TENDS
TO BREAK BLOCK DOWN ON TUE...IF THIS OCCURS LOW CENTER WILL MOVE TO
THE AK PEN AND BRING MOISTURE AS FAR NORTH AS ZONES 161/155.

.EAST...UPPER HIGH PINCHES OFF NEAR THE ARCTIC SAT. THIS SETS UP A NE
JET OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND GULF COAST SAT WHICH SHIFTS TO
SOUTHCENTRAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION
FROM CANADA AND BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT
WINDS WILL REACH WARNING LEVELS ZONE 131 SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND
MAY APPROACH SAME LEVEL IN ZONE 111 ON SUN. GENERAL TIMING WITH BE
WITH THE INSET OF JET SUPPORT...COLD ADVECTION...AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAXES. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WHICH SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSLATE IN TO LOCALIZED WIND CHILL
CONCERNS. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE MAINLAND
THROUGH MON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE MAY BRING A SHOT OF SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 155 161 AND 181. HIGH WIND WATCH
         ZONE 131.

MARINE...STORMS 165 180 185.  GALES 132 150 155 AND 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07