Storm Warning 157, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 011247
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING MOVES INTO EASTERN RUSSIA
SAT AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SUN
AFTERNOON. A GULF OF ALASKA LOW INTENSIFIES TO 983 MB SUN NIGHT 250
NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK.
$$

PKZ150-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SAND POINT EAST...SE WIND 35 KT. N WIND 15 KT ELSEWHERE.
SEAS 12 TO 18 FT...HIGHEST EAST OF SAND POINT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-020300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-020300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-020300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS/NAM IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MON. GFS LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. SO WILL LEAN WITH GFS
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.WEST...PARENT LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND MOVES TO OVER EASTERN RUSSIA SAT. 977 MB CENTER MOVED INTO
THE BERING AS AS IT CROSSED UNALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS CENTER WILL
CONTINUE NW TRACK TO OVER SE RUSSIA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA/SW AK COASTAL ZONES AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. EXPECT WIND WARNING CONDITIONS TO END BY 4
PM THIS AFTERNOON ZONE 181 AND BY MIDNIGHT OVER ZONES 155 AND 161.
HOWEVER...STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING FOR
ZONES 155 AND 161. FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/AK PEN
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SW AS OFFSHORE FLOW SETUP UP OVER THE SW MAINLAND.
UPPER BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP ALOFT THIS WEEKEND...THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO COLD...DRY...AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS INTO MON. MODEL TENDS
TO BREAK BLOCK DOWN ON TUE...IF THIS OCCURS LOW CENTER WILL MOVE TO
THE AK PEN AND BRING MOISTURE AS FAR NORTH AS ZONES 161/155.

.EAST...UPPER HIGH PINCHES OFF NEAR THE ARCTIC SAT. THIS SETS UP A NE
JET OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND GULF COAST SAT WHICH SHIFTS TO
SOUTHCENTRAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION
FROM CANADA AND BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT
WINDS WILL REACH WARNING LEVELS ZONE 131 SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND
MAY APPROACH SAME LEVEL IN ZONE 111 ON SUN. GENERAL TIMING WITH BE
WITH THE INSET OF JET SUPPORT...COLD ADVECTION...AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAXES. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WHICH SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSLATE IN TO LOCALIZED WIND CHILL
CONCERNS. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE MAINLAND
THROUGH MON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE MAY BRING A SHOT OF SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 155 161 AND 181. HIGH WIND WATCH
         ZONE 131.

MARINE...STORMS 165 180 185.  GALES 132 150 155 AND 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07