Gale Warning 887, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 250010 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

CORRECTED ZONE 121 HEADLINE

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO 450 NM SOUTH OF 
KODIAK SAT NIGHT AT 967 MB AND THEN TO 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK AT 980
MB MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-251500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
26 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-251500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...
   NORTH OF CAINES HEAD...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
   SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD..SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...
   NORTH OF CAINES HEAD...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.    
   SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-251500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
GUSTS 55 KT OUT OF EASTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-251500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-251500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-251500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-251500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-251500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.  
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-251500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
315 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

UPDATED TO ADD WARNINGS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS FOR THE 12Z RUN INITIALIZE AND REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS.  AFTER 36 HOURS THE NAM
LIKES TO TAKE THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED GULF OF ALASKA LOW OVER
YAKUTAT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  IN CONTRAST THE GFS KEEPS THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION FROM KODIAK OVER TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF.

ALL MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH A MIN PRESSURE IN THE 955 MB TO 960 MB RANGE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NAM MOVES THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS RETAINS THE LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN.

GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AS OF THIS MORNING A LOW OVER COLD BAY
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. MAIN
POLAR JET AXIS IS BETWEEN 35N AND 45N OVER THE CENTRAL PAC BUT
EASTERN EXTENSION MOVES INTO GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
WEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WEAKENED OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRISTOL BAY ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO
COOK INLET THIS EVENING.  SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP THROUGH THE MID
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT.  SNOWLINE RANGING FROM 2000 FT ALONG THE COAST TO
NEAR SEA LEVEL IN NORTHERN COOK INLET.  MIXED PHASED PRECIP IN
BRISTOL BAY AT SEA LEVEL. STRONG EAST WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND THROUGH GAPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...DESPITE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...EXPECTING VERY
STRONG EAST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  GFS INDICATING A FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE TUE AND
WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 121 125 140 141 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 180 414
         STORMS 120 130 132 138 150 351 352.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LEWF NOV 07