Gale Warning 810, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 251258
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 972 MB LOW NEAR 55N 164W WILL DISSIPATE AND BE ABSORBED BY A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. A 976 MB LOW NEAR 44N 178E WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 957 MB MONDAY MORNING NEAR 49N 175W...THEN WEAKEN TO
974 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 52N 173W TUESDAY MORNING. A 971 MB LOW
NEAR 53N 168E WILL WEAKEN TO 983 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 48N 172E
MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE PREVIOUS LOW NEAR 49N
175W.

$$

PKZ411-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 30 KT AFTER NOON. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS FOR THE 12Z RUN INITIALIZE AND REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS.  AFTER 36 HOURS THE NAM
LIKES TO TAKE THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED GULF OF ALASKA LOW OVER
YAKUTAT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  IN CONTRAST THE GFS KEEPS THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION FROM KODIAK OVER TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF.

ALL MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH A MIN PRESSURE IN THE 955 MB TO 960 MB RANGE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NAM MOVES THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY
WHILE THE GFS RETAINS THE LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN.

GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AS OF THIS MORNING A LOW OVER COLD BAY
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. MAIN
POLAR JET AXIS IS BETWEEN 35N AND 45N OVER THE CENTRAL PAC BUT
EASTERN EXTENSION MOVES INTO GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
WEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WEAKENED OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRISTOL BAY ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO
COOK INLET THIS EVENING.  SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP THROUGH THE MID
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT.  SNOWLINE RANGING FROM 2000 FT ALONG THE COAST TO
NEAR SEA LEVEL IN NORTHERN COOK INLET.  MIXED PHASED PRECIP IN
BRISTOL BAY AT SEA LEVEL. STRONG EAST WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND THROUGH GAPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...DESPITE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...EXPECTING VERY
STRONG EAST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  GFS INDICATING A FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE TUE AND
WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES AND STORMS THROUGHOUT GULF OF ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NOT YET.

*** NOV 07