Gale Warning 850, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 140643 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
940 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

UPDATED 121

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
TONIGHT. A 986 MB LOW WILL FORM 225 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB AS IT MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTH OF
SEWARD BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
940 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 141314
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR DILLINGHAM WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
CITY BY LATE WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THU. A 968 MB LOW 700 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JUNEAU EARLY THU MORNING WILL MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 962 MB BY THU AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN TO 956 MB 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT 
BY LATE THU NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED NOV 14 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
220 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FORECAST FAIRLY SIMILAR. THERE ARE
STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS AND ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES BEYOND THU AFTERNOON.

.ANALYSIS...
REMNANT OF FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY TO ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. A 980S LOW
OVER BRISTOL BAY IS STACKED AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND WED NIGHT/THU AM. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE
KENAI PEN THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY/COPPER RIVER
BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW CENTER LIKELY WILL FORM ALONG
THE BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION SETUP. THE NAM PICKS UP THIS FEATURE
BETTER THEN THE GFS. LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE KENAI PEN
WED AFTERNOON WHERE IT THEN STALLS AS BRISTOL BAY LOW DROPS SOUTH OF
KODIAK. WITH TIME A STRONG LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA FRI AFTERNOON AND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY
MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THU MORNING. THE
RIDGE THINS AND IS PINCHED OFF NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE FRI. A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING AND THE EAST/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRI
NIGHT AS TRIPLE POINT FORMS SOUTHEAST OF ADAK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH STRONG NPAC JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.SURFACE...
.EAST...SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE
OF FRONTAL TROUGH. EXCEPT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO WED MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA/COPPER RIVER UNTIL FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. EXPECT
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD SHIFT TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONCERNS WOULD BE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WEST/NORTH
GULF AND EASTERN KENAI PEN AS A SECONDARY LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE
KENAI PEN WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SNOW VALUES FOR THESE AREAS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS LOW TAPS INTO MOISTURE OVER THE GULF. MODELS
THEN WARM TEMPS UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST/KENAI PEN WED
NIGHT/THU...SO MAY SEE SOME AREAS SHIFT OVER THE RAIN OR MIX.
850/700MB FLOWS SHIFT MORE E-NE ON THU NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME
DRYING CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

.WEST...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVER BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT...SO
WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SW ALASKA AND EASTERN BERING SEA
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. GENERAL DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SW MAINLAND WED NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC FLOWS SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND
BRISTOL BAY LOW MOVES SE. GUSTY WINDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO
HOLD OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/AK PEN THROUGH FRI NIGHT. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO DIMINISH SAT. RAIN/SNOW AND BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH FRONTAL TROUGH THU NIGHT.
RAIN/SNOW WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THIS SYSTEM
FRI EVENING. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07