Gale Warning 85, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 110748 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1050 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

UPDATED ZONES 170 AND 171.

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW 125 NM WEST OF HOOPER BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO 
THE BERING STRAIT WED NIGHT. A 968 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA
WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI. 
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL
BAY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

$$

PKZ150-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT IN
ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT IN 
ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-111500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
1050 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111500-
UNALASKA BAY
1050 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-111500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 111219
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WEAKENS TO 985 MB AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A 990 MB LOW NEAR SAINT
GEORGE ISLAND THIS MORNING WEAKENS TO 994 MB TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTH TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS 
THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY THU NIGHT AND FRI. 

$$

PKZ150-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-120300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-120300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-120300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT.  
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-120300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-120300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-120300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST THU JAN 11 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
105 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...A MAJOR HEMISPHERIC LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY AT 55N
169E. LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN EUROPE ALL THE WAY
ACROSS ASIA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. AN EAST-WEST 250 MB JET IS RIDING
OUT OF EASTERN ASIA BETWEEN 35N AND 40N OVER TO ABOUT 170W. THERE IS
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC CENTERED BETWEEN 140W AND
150E AND NOSING UP INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
STORM SYSTEMS EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AKPENN OR GULF OF ALASKA INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS/SOUTHWEST ALASKA EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT WARNING THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS SYSTEMS MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL UNDERGO SIMILAR WARMING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND BEYOND AS SYSTEMS BRING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD.
FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST AIR WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KODIAK ISLAND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM
OF SNOW.

SURFACE...THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 968 MB. SOMEWHAT
COLDER AIR IS BEING TRANSPORTED OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. AS INDICATED BY
THE 12Z SHEMYA SOUNDING THIS HAS CREATED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE RESULT OF THIS WHICH IS  A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. AS THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS SWITCHING TO SNOW. FARTHER EAST IS A SURFACE
LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND AKPENN. THE LOW IS
TRACKING NORTHWARD AND WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GULF THE COLD FRONT IS
MAKING VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. STRONG WINDS
ALONG THIS FRONT PRODUCED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EARLIER ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WINDS REMAIN STRONG BUT SNOW HAS DIMINISHED AND
TEMPERATURE HAVE RISEN TO NEAR FREEZING SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY UP
COOK INLET. THIS SNOW IS MAINLY DUE TO WARMER AIR OVERRIDING ARCTIC
AIR MASS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOWLY RISING...BUT REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL.

MODEL ANALYSIS...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND DEPICT A SIMILAR
SOLUTION THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT POINT MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE AND MODELS DISPLAY POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. FOR NOW
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NEW GFS SOLUTION BEYOND 48 HOURS.

SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR
MUCH OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WITH ENHANCED SNOW ALONG THE UPSLOPE
OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE LEE
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAINS DOE TO THESE WINDS. ASIDE FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF KACHEMAK BAY
WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE PATH OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND UNAFFECTED
BY THE LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE KENAI
MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INLAND
TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO
OVERRIDE THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WINDS MAY REACH ABOUT 25 MPH THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND PORTAGE ARM
AND RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THIS TO BE A MARGINAL EVENT SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BARELY REACH HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW VISIBILITIES. AS
WE HEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD TO SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO
EASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND HELP CUT OFF SNOW IN MANY
PLACES...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN SNOWY.
LOOK FOR PATTERN TO REMAIN WET (OR SNOWY) AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE STORM TRACK BRING SYSTEMS UP TO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. EACH SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE WARMING AND WE MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO START DEALING WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS
AGAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST...AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AREAS JUST NORTH EAST OF THE FRONT...MAINLY
ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF SNOW WHILE AREAS WEST OF THE FRONT WILL DRY OUT. AS THE UPPER
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW IS LIKELY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE FOR THIS REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS FORECAST...FAR AWAY FROM THE STORM TRACK MOST
OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN UNDER A SHOWERY REGIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 155.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140.

SEB JAN 07