Storm Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 110000
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW 125 NM WEST OF HOOPER BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO 
THE BERING STRAIT WED NIGHT. A 968 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA
WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI. 
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL
BAY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

$$

PKZ150-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT IN
ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT IN 
ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-111500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-111500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST WED JAN 10 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED JAN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
THE ADVERTISED MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO WARM...MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NEARLY COMPLETE. THIS MORNING...THERE IS STILL
SOME DRY...COLD AIR IS LOW LEVELS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BUT
THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FIRST WARM FRONT MOVES IN. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT...LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEK.

...MODELS...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. SOME ISSUES WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT THE DISAGREEMENTS ARE NOT TOO
SERIOUS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER COASTAL
AREAS...AND TERRAIN EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

...SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR IS STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT THIS WILL ERODE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE UPCOMING SYSTEM IS A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO
KODIAK...WITH SNOW TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...HARD TO SEE MUCH OF A
BREAK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS...AS SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY RISE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LEVEL OFF AT
READINGS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MEANS A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
MIX IN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM CORDOVA TO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA TO KODIAK. KODIAK IS ACTUALLY
ALREADY SWITCHING OVER TO RAIN THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE ISLAND.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
STRONG FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED TUESDAY NIGHT FROM CAPE
NEWENHAM NORTH. CAPE NEWENHAM EVEN HAD A WIND GUST AROUND 80 MPH
WITH THE SNOW. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW THE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AROUND BRISTOL BAY
WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INLAND. LIKE
SOUTHCENTRAL...SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...AS THE WARM...MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH
FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.

...BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN FORECAST...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT TO SAY ABOUT THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...AS THEY
WILL HAVE PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN THAT THE REST OF THE
STATE WILL HAVE...WHICH IS FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE FREQUENT LOW PRESSURES WHICH WILL SPIN
UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FOR CERTAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 155.
         GALE WARNINGS 132 150 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180
         350 410.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS 130 140 141.

FOISY JAN 07