Gale Warning 793, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 072343
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST WED NOV 7 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR 51N 170W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 959 MB NEAR 58N 164W
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 54N 179W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST WED NOV 7 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST WED NOV 7 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST WED NOV 7 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST WED NOV 7 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUES TO BE FAIR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND THEN GET WORSE BEYOND THAT POINT. THE GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET AND THAN IT IS THE THE NAM, SO I HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION BUT NOT BY MUCH. IT STRENGTHEN THE
LOW, DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, IS 5 TO 10 MB TOO DEEP FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A COMPLEX SERIES OF LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
ARE ROTATING AROUND A CENTRAL UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.
A 980 MB LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA S TURNING NORTHWEST INTO
BRISTOL BAY. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. GALE TO SOME STORM
FORCE WINDS CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND GULF OF ALASKA...
THE  WEATHER FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST TONIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS THIS EVENING
AND BECOME SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE INTO KENAI PENINSULA AND WESTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
A SERIES OF LOWS, ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW, WILL MOVE UP THROUGH
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOWS OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND
DISSIPATE SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST, WILL DIMINISHING A LITTLE TONIGHT.

A SECOND LOW WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL TURN NORTH AND MOVE TO NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE 100 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A THIRD LOW DEVELOPING 400
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND DEEPEN TO ABOUT 963 MB THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE LOWS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE AREAS
OF SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY THURSDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE SERIES OF WEAKER LOWS OVER THE AREA WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
SINGLE STRONGER LOW IN WESTERN BRISTOL BAY BY THURSDAY. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN WILL BECOME MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER EASTERN BERING WILL BECOME MOSTLY RAIN
BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SOME KIND OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MAINLAND ALASKA
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 132, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 07